Prognosis
Overall prognosis
The overall median survival of patients with cirrhosis is approximately 10 years, but prognosis depends on the stage of the disease.
The 10-year survival rate in patients with compensated cirrhosis is approximately 90%, and the likelihood of transitioning to decompensated cirrhosis within 10 years is 50%.[188] The median survival time in patients with decompensated cirrhosis is approximately 2 years.[188][189] The median survival time following onset of hepatic encephalopathy is 0.92 years and following onset of ascites is 1.1 years.[3] Patients with chronic liver disease have a higher mortality rate from COVID-19 infection, and mortality is associated with liver disease severity.[190][191]
In clinical practice, the Child-Pugh-Turcotte score and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score are the most commonly used scoring systems for the prediction of mortality related to liver disease.
Four clinical stages of cirrhosis have been identified and each is associated with a different prognosis.[188]
Stage 1
Patients without gastro-oesophageal varices or ascites have a mortality of approximately 1% per year.
Stage 2
Patients with gastro-oesophageal varices (but no bleeding) and no ascites have a mortality of approximately 4% per year.
Stage 3
Patients with ascites with or without gastro-oesophageal varices (but no bleeding) have a mortality of approximately 20% per year.
Stage 4
Patients with gastrointestinal bleeding due to portal hypertension with or without ascites have a 1-year mortality of 57%.
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