Gout attacks are painful and debilitating, but self-limiting. In patients who have not been treated with uric acid-lowering drugs, the risk of recurrence after the first attack is 62%, 78%, and 84% during the first, second, and third year, respectively.[132]Yu TF, Gutman AB. Efficacy of colchicine prophylaxis in gout. Prevention of recurrent gouty arthritis over a mean period of five years in 208 gouty subjects. Ann Intern Med. 1961;55:179-192.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13787543?tool=bestpractice.com
In untreated gout:[133]Hench PS. The diagnosis of gout and gouty arthritis. J Lab Clin Med. 1936 Oct;22(1):48-55.
About 2% of patients develop severe debilitating arthritis (typically 20 years after the first attack)
Tophi occur in about 50% after 10 years, and 72% after 20 years.
Appropriate treatment can suppress gout attacks and their recurrence, and prevent long-term consequences of the disease. There are currently few available uric acid-lowering agents, which is problematic in cases of medication intolerance or ineffectiveness. In addition, treatments for acute and chronic gout have considerable risks and adverse effects.
Data from a general population cohort study suggest that allopurinol initiation modestly reduces risk of death in patients with hyperuricemia and patients with gout.[134]Dubreuil M, Zhu Y, Zhang Y, et al. Allopurinol initiation and all-cause mortality in the general population. Ann Rheum Dis. 2015;74:1368-1372.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4222989
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24665118?tool=bestpractice.com
Another study found no difference in mortality in people with incident gout who were treated with allopurinol compared with matched controls, based on propensity scores.[135]Kuo CF, Grainge MJ, Mallen C, et al. Effect of allopurinol on all-cause mortality in adults with incident gout: propensity score-matched landmark analysis. Rheumatology (Oxford). 2015;54:2145-2150.
https://academic.oup.com/rheumatology/article/54/12/2145/1793055
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26170376?tool=bestpractice.com
Prospective cohort studies suggest that allopurinol therapy is associated with a reduced incidence of renal disease.[108]Vargas-Santos AB, Peloquin CE, Zhang Y, et al. Association of chronic kidney disease with allopurinol use in gout treatment. JAMA Intern Med. 2018 Nov 1;178(11):1526-33.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2705694
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30304329?tool=bestpractice.com
[109]Krishnan E, Akhras KS, Sharma H, et al. Serum urate and incidence of kidney disease among veterans with gout. J Rheumatol. 2013;40:1166-1172.
https://www.jrheum.org/content/40/7/1166.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23678154?tool=bestpractice.com