Background
Patients with small varices progress to develop large varices at a rate of approximately 7% per year.[4]Garcia-Tsao G, Bosch J. Management of varices and variceal hemorrhage in cirrhosis. N Engl J Med. 2010 Mar 4;362(9):823-32.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20200386?tool=bestpractice.com
[9]Groszmann RJ, Garcia-Tsao G, Bosch J, et al; Portal Hypertension Collaborative Group. Beta-blockers to prevent gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis. N Engl J Med. 2005 Nov 24;353(21):2254-61.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa044456
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16306522?tool=bestpractice.com
The main factors associated with the development of varices, and their progression from small to large, are a hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) >10 mmHg, decompensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh B/C), alcoholic cirrhosis, and the presence of red wale marks (defined as longitudinal dilated venules resembling whip marks on the variceal surface) at the time of baseline endoscopy.[6]Garcia-Tsao G, Abraldes JG, Berzigotti A, et al. Portal hypertensive bleeding in cirrhosis: risk stratification, diagnosis, and management: 2016 practice guidance by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. Hepatology. 2017 Jan;65(1):310-35.
https://aasldpubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hep.28906
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27786365?tool=bestpractice.com
[9]Groszmann RJ, Garcia-Tsao G, Bosch J, et al; Portal Hypertension Collaborative Group. Beta-blockers to prevent gastroesophageal varices in patients with cirrhosis. N Engl J Med. 2005 Nov 24;353(21):2254-61.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa044456
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16306522?tool=bestpractice.com
[10]Merli M, Nicolini G, Angeloni S, et al. Incidence and natural history of small esophageal varices in cirrhotic patients. J Hepatol. 2003 Mar;38(3):266-72.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12586291?tool=bestpractice.com
Detailed classification systems have been developed to identify those varices that are at highest risk of bleeding based on size, endoscopic markings, and liver function.[3]North Italian Endoscopic Club for the Study and Treatment of Esophageal Varices. Prediction of the first variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis of the liver and esophageal varices. A prospective multicenter study. N Engl J Med. 1988 Oct 13;319(15):983-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3262200?tool=bestpractice.com
[50]The general rules for recording endoscopic findings of esophageal varices. Jpn J Surg. 1980 Mar;10(1):84-7.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7373958?tool=bestpractice.com
[51]Reliability of endoscopy in the assessment of variceal features. The Italian Liver Cirrhosis Project. J Hepatol. 1987 Feb;4(1):93-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3494762?tool=bestpractice.com
The most important predictor of haemorrhage is the size of varices, with the highest risk of first haemorrhage occurring in patients with large varices (15% per year).[3]North Italian Endoscopic Club for the Study and Treatment of Esophageal Varices. Prediction of the first variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis of the liver and esophageal varices. A prospective multicenter study. N Engl J Med. 1988 Oct 13;319(15):983-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3262200?tool=bestpractice.com
[5]Tripathi D, Stanley AJ, Hayes PC, et al. UK guidelines on the management of variceal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients. Gut. 2015 Nov;64(11):1680-704.
https://gut.bmj.com/content/64/11/1680.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25887380?tool=bestpractice.com
[4]Garcia-Tsao G, Bosch J. Management of varices and variceal hemorrhage in cirrhosis. N Engl J Med. 2010 Mar 4;362(9):823-32.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20200386?tool=bestpractice.com
Other important predictors of haemorrhage are decompensated cirrhosis (Child-Pugh B/C) and the endoscopic finding of red wale marks.[3]North Italian Endoscopic Club for the Study and Treatment of Esophageal Varices. Prediction of the first variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis of the liver and esophageal varices. A prospective multicenter study. N Engl J Med. 1988 Oct 13;319(15):983-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3262200?tool=bestpractice.com
[5]Tripathi D, Stanley AJ, Hayes PC, et al. UK guidelines on the management of variceal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients. Gut. 2015 Nov;64(11):1680-704.
https://gut.bmj.com/content/64/11/1680.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25887380?tool=bestpractice.com
[6]Garcia-Tsao G, Abraldes JG, Berzigotti A, et al. Portal hypertensive bleeding in cirrhosis: risk stratification, diagnosis, and management: 2016 practice guidance by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. Hepatology. 2017 Jan;65(1):310-35.
https://aasldpubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/hep.28906
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27786365?tool=bestpractice.com
Child-Pugh classification of the severity of cirrhosis
Child-Pugh scoring uses five clinical measures of liver disease. Each measure is scored as between 1 and 3 points, with 3 indicating the most severe derangement.
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Child Pugh classification for severity of liver disease (SI units)
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The clinical measures are:
Encephalopathy
None: 1 point
Grade 1 to 2: 2 points
Grade 3 to 4: 3 points
Ascites
None: 1 point
Mild/moderate: 2 points
Tense: 3 points
Bilirubin (mg/dL)
<2 (34.2 micromol/L): 1 point
2 to 3 (34.2 to 51.3 micromol/L): 2 points
>3 (51.3 micromol/L): 3 points
Albumin (g/dL)
International normalised ratio
<1.7: 1 point
1.7 to 2.3: 2 points
>2.3: 3 points.
Chronic liver disease is classified into Child-Pugh class A to C using the scores as above:
North Italian endoscopic club for the study and treatment of oesophageal varices[3]North Italian Endoscopic Club for the Study and Treatment of Esophageal Varices. Prediction of the first variceal hemorrhage in patients with cirrhosis of the liver and esophageal varices. A prospective multicenter study. N Engl J Med. 1988 Oct 13;319(15):983-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3262200?tool=bestpractice.com
Classification based on size, severity of red wale marks (defined as longitudinal dilated venules resembling whip marks on the variceal surface), and Child-Pugh class.
Size of varices
Red wale markings
Child-Pugh class
A risk stratification for variceal bleeding accompanies this classification, with cumulative scores for individual features added to define a risk class.
Size of varices
Small (<25% lumen radius)
Medium (25% to 50% lumen radius)
Large (>50% of lumen radius)
Red wale markings
Absent 3.2
Mild 6.4
Moderate 9.6
Severe 12.8
Child-Pugh class
Risk class according to North Italian endoscopic club score: (Risk Class: score; 1-year bleeding rate %):
Risk Class 1 (<20; 1.6%)
Risk Class 2 (20 to 25; 11% )
Risk Class 3 (25.1 to 30; 14.8%)
Risk Class 4 (30.1 to 35; 23.3%)
Risk Class 5 (35.1 to 40; 37.8%)
Risk Class 6 (>40; 68.9%).