The prognosis of new-onset AF is not a well evaluated area. Prognosis depends on several factors, such as the precipitating event, underlying cardiac status, risk of thromboembolism, and whether the nature of the AF is paroxysmal, persistent, or permanent.[161]Vitali F, Serenelli M, Airaksinen J, et al. CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts atrial fibrillation recurrence after cardioversion: Systematic review and individual patient pooled meta-analysis. Clin Cardiol. 2019 Mar;42(3):358-64.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6712331
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30597581?tool=bestpractice.com
As well as its role in predicting thromboembolic risk, the CHA2DS2-VASc score is also useful at predicting recurrence of AF after electrical or pharmacologic cardioversion, with a score of ≥2 associated with a 37% increase in the risk of arrhythmia recurrence.[161]Vitali F, Serenelli M, Airaksinen J, et al. CHA2DS2-VASc score predicts atrial fibrillation recurrence after cardioversion: Systematic review and individual patient pooled meta-analysis. Clin Cardiol. 2019 Mar;42(3):358-64.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6712331
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30597581?tool=bestpractice.com
In young patients with no structural cardiac abnormalities who have an episode of new-onset AF as a result of alcohol bingeing, prognosis is excellent with avoidance of alcohol. Even in patients for whom alcohol was not a precipitant of AF, abstinence from alcohol can help reduce the risk of AF recurrence, and of ischemic stroke.[24]Csengeri D, Sprünker NA, Di Castelnuovo A, et al. Alcohol consumption, cardiac biomarkers, and risk of atrial fibrillation and adverse outcomes. Eur Heart J. 2021 Mar 21;42(12):1170-7.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982286
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33438022?tool=bestpractice.com
[25]Lee SR, Choi EK, Jung JH, et al. Lower risk of stroke after alcohol abstinence in patients with incident atrial fibrillation: a nationwide population-based cohort study. Eur Heart J. 2021 Dec 7;42(46):4759-68.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8651176
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34097040?tool=bestpractice.com
[47]Powell-Wiley TM, Poirier P, Burke LE, et al. Obesity and cardiovascular disease: A scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2021 May 25;143(21):e984-1010.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8493650
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33882682?tool=bestpractice.com
[162]Voskoboinik A, Kalman JM, De Silva A, et al. Alcohol Abstinence in Drinkers with Atrial Fibrillation. N Engl J Med. 2020 Jan 2;382(1):20-28.
https://www.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1817591
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31893513?tool=bestpractice.com
In contrast, short- and long-term prognosis for patients presenting with new onset of AF with heart failure following myocardial infarction (MI) is poor. Furthermore, a meta-analysis has shown that there is an increased risk of mortality with the presence of AF in the setting of MI, which persists regardless of the timing of AF.[163]Jabre P, Roger VL, Murad MH, et al. Mortality associated with atrial fibrillation in patients with myocardial infarction: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Circulation. 2011 Apr 19;123(15):1587-93.
http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/123/15/1587.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21464054?tool=bestpractice.com
Patients with prior AF or new-onset AF following MI need close clinical follow-up. One systematic review identified lower socioeconomic status as a risk factor for poor outcomes in AF.[164]Lunde ED, Nielsen PB, Riahi S, et al. Associations between socioeconomic status, atrial fibrillation, and outcomes: a systematic review. Expert Rev Cardiovasc Ther. 2018 Nov;16(11):857-73.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30293472?tool=bestpractice.com
Patients with a normal body mass index have the best outcomes in AF, with studies suggesting that the extremes of weight, either under- or overweight, are associated with a worse prognosis in AF.[165]Liu X, Guo L, Xiao K, et al. The obesity paradox for outcomes in atrial fibrillation: evidence from an exposure-effect analysis of prospective studies. Obes Rev. 2020 Mar;21(3):e12970.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31849187?tool=bestpractice.com