The prognosis of a patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) depends largely on the size and magnitude of the shunt and the status of the pulmonary vasculature. Many patients with small ductus arteriosus never have signs of significant haemodynamic impairment and, other than the risk of endarteritis, have a normal prognosis. Those patients with significant left heart volume overload, however, are at risk of congestive heart failure or irreversible pulmonary vascular disease, even if asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic during childhood.[32]Schneider DJ, Moore JW. Patent ductus arteriosus. Circulation. 2006 Oct 24;114(17):1873-82.
http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/114/17/1873
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17060397?tool=bestpractice.com
Premature infants
Premature infants with a clinically significant persistent PDA are at risk of increased mortality compared with infants of a similar gestational age and birth weight without PDA.[96]Sellmer A, Bjerre JV, Schmidt MR, et al. Morbidity and mortality in preterm neonates with patent ductus arteriosus on day 3. Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed. 2013 Nov;98(6):F505-10.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23893268?tool=bestpractice.com
[97]Noori S, McCoy M, Friedlich P, et al. Failure of ductus arteriosus closure is associated with increased mortality in preterm infants. Pediatrics. 2009 Jan;123(1):e138-44.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19117835?tool=bestpractice.com
One study found that those with a persistent significant PDA (despite attempted closure) had four times the risk of death compared to premature infants without a significant PDA.[98]Brooks JM, Travadi JN, Patole SK, et al. Is surgical ligation of patent ductus arteriosus necessary? The Western Australian experience of conservative management. Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed. 2005;90:F235-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15846015?tool=bestpractice.com
These infants also suffer from increased morbidity related to the effects of increased pulmonary blood flow (pulmonary oedema, pulmonary haemorrhage, bronchopulmonary dysplasia [BPD], and pulmonary hypertension) and systemic undercirculation (hypotension, necrotising enterocolitis, intraventricular haemorrhage, and acute kidney injury) due to left-to-right shunting.[19]Kluckow M, Evans N. Ductal shunting, high pulmonary blood flow, and pulmonary hemorrhage. J Pediatr. 2000 Jul;137(1):68-72.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10891824?tool=bestpractice.com
[20]Marshall DD, Kotelchuck M, Young TE, et al. Risk factors for chronic lung disease in the surfactant era: A North Carolina population-based study of very low birth weight infants. Pediatrics. 1999 Dec;104(6):1345-50.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10585987?tool=bestpractice.com
[21]Rojas MA, Gonzalez A, Bancalari E, et al. Changing trends in the epidemiology and pathogenesis of neonatal chronic lung disease. J Pediatr. 1995 Apr;126(4):605-10.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7699543?tool=bestpractice.com
[24]Dollberg S, Lusky A, Reichman B. Patent ductus arteriosus, indomethacin and necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight infants: a population-based study. J Pediatr Gastroenterol Nutr. 2005 Feb;40(2):184-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15699694?tool=bestpractice.com
[50]Hamrick SEG, Sallmon H, Rose AT, et al. Patent ductus arteriosus of the preterm infant. Pediatrics. 2020 Nov;146(5):e20201209.
https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/146/5/e20201209/75323/Patent-Ductus-Arteriosus-of-the-Preterm-Infant
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33093140?tool=bestpractice.com
[99]Bancalari E, Claure N, Gonzalez A. Patent ductus arteriosus and respiratory outcome in premature infants. Biol Neonate. 2005;88(3):192-201.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210841?tool=bestpractice.com
[100]Gentle SJ, Travers CP, Clark M, et al. Patent ductus arteriosus and development of bronchopulmonary dysplasia-associated pulmonary hypertension. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2023 Apr 1;207(7):921-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36378949?tool=bestpractice.com
[101]Wu TW, Noori S. Recognition and management of neonatal hemodynamic compromise. Pediatr Neonatol. 2021 Feb;62 Suppl 1:S22-9.
https://www.pediatr-neonatol.com/article/S1875-9572(20)30206-0/fulltext
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33485823?tool=bestpractice.com
[102]Majed B, Bateman DA, Uy N, et al. Patent ductus arteriosus is associated with acute kidney injury in the preterm infant. Pediatr Nephrol. 2019 Jun;34(6):1129-39.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30706125?tool=bestpractice.com
The risk of mortality and morbidity appear to be similar regardless of whether the infant is managed expectantly or with early pharmacological therapy.[69]Hundscheid T, Onland W, Kooi EMW, et al. Expectant management or early ibuprofen for patent ductus arteriosus. N Engl J Med. 2023 Mar 16;388(11):980-90.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2207418
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36477458?tool=bestpractice.com
[103]Sung SI, Lee MH, Ahn SY, et al. Effect of nonintervention vs oral ibuprofen in patent ductus arteriosus in preterm infants: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA Pediatr. 2020 Aug 1;174(8):755-63.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2766727
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32539121?tool=bestpractice.com
[104]El-Khuffash A, Bussmann N, Breatnach CR, et al. A pilot randomized controlled trial of early targeted patent ductus arteriosus treatment using a risk based severity score (The PDA RCT). J Pediatr. 2021 Feb;229:127-33.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33069668?tool=bestpractice.com
[105]Clyman RI, Liebowitz M, Kaempf J, et al. PDA-TOLERATE trial: an exploratory randomized controlled trial of treatment of moderate-to-large patent ductus arteriosus at 1 week of age. J Pediatr. 2019 Feb;205:41-8.e6.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30340932?tool=bestpractice.com
Emerging data suggest that the duration of exposure to a clinically significant PDA, rather than simply the presence or absence of a shunt, is the more important risk factor for development of BPD.[59]Backes CH, Hill KD, Shelton EL, et al. Patent ductus arteriosus: a contemporary perspective for the pediatric and adult cardiac care provider. J Am Heart Assoc. 2022 Sep 6;11(17):e025784.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9496432
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36056734?tool=bestpractice.com
Infants who require surgical ligation generally have a worse outcome; this may be due to the fact that this is a more severely compromised patient population.[106]Mirea L, Sankaran K, Seshia M, et al. Treatment of patent ductus arteriosus and neonatal mortality/morbidities: adjustment for treatment selection bias. J Pediatr. 2012 Oct;161(4):689-94.e1.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22703954?tool=bestpractice.com
[107]Madan JC, Kendrick D, Hagadorn JI, et al. Patent ductus arteriosus therapy: impact on neonatal and 18-month outcome. Pediatrics. 2009 Feb;123(2):674-81.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19171637?tool=bestpractice.com
[108]Kabra NS, Schmidt B, Roberts RS, et al. Neurosensory impairment after surgical closure of patent ductus arteriosus in extremely low birth weight infants: results from the Trial of Indomethacin Prophylaxis in Preterms. J Pediatr. 2007 Mar;150(3):229-34, 234.e1.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17307535?tool=bestpractice.com
[109]Chorne N, Leonard C, Piecuch R, et al. Patent ductus arteriosus and its treatment as risk factors for neonatal and neurodevelopmental morbidity. Pediatrics. 2007 Jun;119(6):1165-74.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17545385?tool=bestpractice.com
Full-term infants and children
Prior to the era of antibiotics, surgery, and catheter closure, natural history studies demonstrated risk of death as 0.42% per year (aged 2 to 19 years), 1.0% per year (20 to 29 years), and 1.8% per year (30 to 39 years).[31]Campbell M. Natural history of patent ductus arteriosus. Br Heart J. 1968 Jan;30(1):4-13.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/5637557?tool=bestpractice.com
The estimated risk of endarteritis has been estimated at 0.45% per year for an untreated duct.[31]Campbell M. Natural history of patent ductus arteriosus. Br Heart J. 1968 Jan;30(1):4-13.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/5637557?tool=bestpractice.com
With current treatment strategies, mortality and endarteritis occur rarely.[110]Thilen U, Astrom-Olsson K. Does the risk of infective endarteritis justify routine patent ductus arteriosus closure? Eur Heart J. 1997;18:503-506.
http://eurheartj.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/18/3/503
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9076389?tool=bestpractice.com
Spontaneous closure of a patent ductus after 3 months of age is relatively rare. If a significant shunt is left untreated, it can result in the development of pulmonary obstructive disease that can become manifest as early as 15 months of life. A more moderate untreated shunt may not present with such symptoms until later in life. In patients with smaller ducts, the risk of morbidity is very low and is mainly related to the risk of endarteritis. Clinically silent PDAs appear to carry a relatively low risk for endarteritis with only a few case reports in the literature.[111]Balzer DT, Spray TL, McMullin D, et al. Endarteritis associated with a clinically silent patent ductus arteriosus. Am Heart J. 1993;125:1192-1193.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8465758?tool=bestpractice.com
[112]Parthenakis FI, Kanakaraki MK, Vardas PE. Images in cardiology: silent patent ductus arteriosus endarteritis. Heart. 2000;84:619.
http://heart.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/84/6/619
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11083739?tool=bestpractice.com
However, most patients, regardless of shunt size, are now referred for either catheter or surgical closure. Overall prognosis of these patients is very good after closure; typically patients are well and the procedure is considered curative. However, there are rare instances when increased pulmonary resistance may remain, even after closure of the duct. This is thought to be related to a primary abnormality of the pulmonary vasculature.[32]Schneider DJ, Moore JW. Patent ductus arteriosus. Circulation. 2006 Oct 24;114(17):1873-82.
http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/full/114/17/1873
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17060397?tool=bestpractice.com