Prognosis
Acute graft versus host disease (GVHD)
Using the Minnesota acute GVHD risk score to categorize a relatively recent patient cohort (2007-2016), overall response rates (complete response plus partial response) for patients with standard risk acute GVHD and high-risk cute GVHD were 68% and 49% at day 56, respectively.[87] Patients with high-risk acute GVHD were at increased risk for 2 year transplant-related mortality and overall mortality compared with patients with a standard risk GVHD. Of note, the Minnesota GvHD Risk Score is intended to explore GVHD risk, inform upfront acute GVHD therapy, and to improve risk stratification in clinical trials.
Once acute GVHD occurs, the most important predictor of long-term survival is the primary response to therapy. In patients who do not respond completely to initial therapy, the risk of morbidity and mortality increases significantly.[171][172] Lack of response or lack of improvement following 3-7 days of corticosteroid therapy is associated with poor prognosis, primarily due to life-threatening opportunistic infections and/or multi-organ dysfunction.[173] For severe grade III-IV GVHD, survival rates beyond 1 year are approximately 10% to 15%.
In some cases, withdrawal of corticosteroid therapy can lead to a flare of acute GVHD and/or evolve into chronic GVHD. The exact rate of flares is unpredictable, but it is higher in mismatched or unrelated donor hematopoietic cell transplantations (HCTs).
The outlook for patients who require second-line treatments is poor, and new approaches to prophylaxis, initial and salvage therapy are needed. Furthermore, it is difficult to predict which patients will respond to certain therapeutic modalities.
Chronic GVHD
The overall prognosis for patients with chronic GVHD is primarily dependent on the appropriate diagnosis, treatment, prevention of treatment-associated complications, and long-term care of organs affected. The leading cause of death is treatment-associated complications, particularly life-threatening opportunistic infections.
Despite aggressive management, overall survival following diagnosis and treatment has not improved significantly during the past 30 years.[8][174][175] In an analysis of 668 patients treated for chronic GVHD, the cumulative incidence of nonrelapse mortality at 2 years was 16% and overall survival at 2 years was 74%.[176]
Treatment-related complications
Prolonged exposure to systemic corticosteroids in the treatment of acute and chronic GVHD can lead to numerous toxicities and potentially irreversible adverse effects in many organs, including hypertension, hyperglycemia, anxiety, altered mood behaviors, avascular necrosis, osteopenia, vertebral fractures, poor wound healing, central obesity, myopathy, and skin atrophy with local depigmentation and telangiectasias. In addition, GVHD-mediated organ damage also contributes to significant morbidity and mortality.
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