DVT rarely affects the overall prognosis of the patient; the presence or absence of an underlying malignancy, and the presence or absence of underlying medical comorbidities, such as liver disease or chronic kidney disease, remain the major prognostic determinants among patients with DVT. People with cancer have reduced survival rates compared with people without cancer, and cancer patients who sustain DVT have a shorter life expectancy than cancer patients without venous thromboembolism (VTE; although this appears to be related to an association with more severe malignancy and VTE, rather than to the DVT itself). If a patient dies due to DVT, this is usually caused by concomitant pulmonary embolus or major haemorrhage as a complication of the anticoagulation therapy.
In one systematic review, during the initial 3 months of anticoagulation, the rate of recurrent fatal VTE was 0.4% with a case-fatality rate of 11.3%. The rate of fatal major bleeding events was 0.2% with a case-fatality rate of 11.3%. After anticoagulation, the rate of fatal recurrent VTE was 0.3 per 100 patient-years with a case-fatality rate of 3.6%.[140]Carrier M, Le Gal G, Wells PS, et al. Systematic review: case-fatality rates of recurrent venous thromboembolism and major bleeding events among patients treated for venous thromboembolism. Ann Intern Med. 2010 May 4;152(9):578-89.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20439576?tool=bestpractice.com
In community cohort studies, the incidence of acute recurrent DVT within 60 days is as high as 25% to 30%. The reasons for this acute recurrence are not known, but subtherapeutic anticoagulant therapy or patient non-adherence to therapy may contribute.[141]Spencer FA, Emery C, Joffe SW, et al. Incidence rates, clinical profile, and outcomes of patients with venous thromboembolism: the Worcester VTE study. J Thromb Thrombolysis. 2009 Nov;28(4):401-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19629642?tool=bestpractice.com
[142]Heit JA, Mohr DN, Silverstein MD, et al. Predictors of recurrence after deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism: a population-based cohort study. Arch Intern Med. 2000 Mar 27;160(6):761-8.
http://archinte.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/160/6/761
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10737275?tool=bestpractice.com
In patients with acute DVT or pulmonary embolism enrolled in prospective cohort studies, only 5% of patients develop recurrent VTE during the initial 6 months of anticoagulation; however, 30% of patients develop recurrent VTE between 6 months and 5 years after the initial event, if off anticoagulation.[143]Schulman S, Rhedin AS, Lindmarker P, et al. A comparison of six weeks with six months of oral anticoagulant therapy after a first episode of venous thromboembolism. Duration of Anticoagulation Trial Study Group. N Engl J Med. 1995 Jun 22;332(25):1661-5.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7760866?tool=bestpractice.com
[144]Schulman S, Granqvist S, Holmström M, et al. The duration of oral anticoagulant therapy after a second episode of venous thromboembolism. The Duration of Anticoagulation Trial Study Group. N Engl J Med. 1997 Feb 6;336(6):393-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9010144?tool=bestpractice.com
Compared with patients with no thrombophilic defects, the rate of recurrence during warfarin therapy is not increased in the presence of one or more defects.[145]Kearon C, Julian JA, Kovacs MJ, et al. Influence of thrombophilia on risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism while on warfarin: results from a randomized trial. Blood. 2008 Dec 1;112(12):4432-6.
http://bloodjournal.hematologylibrary.org/cgi/content/full/112/12/4432
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18791166?tool=bestpractice.com
The incidence of major life-threatening haemorrhage owing to anticoagulant treatment is low, with the precise risk varying by anticoagulant agent and patient characteristics.
Recurrence
A significant factor that determines the risk of recurrence is whether a DVT is provoked or unprovoked.
A provoked DVT is a DVT associated with a major transient risk factor that was present in the 3 months prior to the DVT.[12]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Venous thromboembolic diseases: diagnosis, management and thrombophilia testing. Aug 2023 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng158
An unprovoked DVT is a DVT in a patient who had no pre-existing, major, transient, provoking risk factor in the prior 3 months.[12]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Venous thromboembolic diseases: diagnosis, management and thrombophilia testing. Aug 2023 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng158
Major provoking risk factors include: major surgery; trauma; significant immobility (bedbound, unable to walk unaided, or likely to spend a substantial proportion of the day in bed or in a chair); pregnancy or puerperium; use of oral contraceptive/hormone replacement therapy).[12]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Venous thromboembolic diseases: diagnosis, management and thrombophilia testing. Aug 2023 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng158
The principal means of preventing recurrence (secondary prevention) is the extended duration (beyond 3 months) of anticoagulation. Bear in mind that not all patients will need continued anticoagulation beyond 3 months. However, other considerations may be required (e.g., VTE prophylaxis at periods of higher risk). See Secondary prevention under Prevention for more information.
Seek advice from haematology for any patient who has a recurrent VTE despite adequate anticoagulation treatment. Recurrent VTE is unusual among patients receiving therapeutic-dose anticoagulant therapy, except in those with active cancer (7% to 9% on-therapy recurrence with low molecular weight heparin).[13]Konstantinides SV, Meyer G, Becattini C, et al. 2019 ESC guidelines for the diagnosis and management of acute pulmonary embolism developed in collaboration with the European Respiratory Society (ERS). Eur Heart J. 2020 Jan 21;41(4):543-603.
https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/41/4/543/5556136
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31504429?tool=bestpractice.com
[137]Prandoni P, Lensing AW, Piccioli A, et al. Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding complications during anticoagulant treatment in patients with cancer and venous thrombosis. Blood. 2002 Nov 15;100(10):3484-8.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006497120541062?via%3Dihub
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12393647?tool=bestpractice.com
[138]Posch F, Königsbrügge O, Zielinski C, et al. Treatment of venous thromboembolism in patients with cancer: a network meta-analysis comparing efficacy and safety of anticoagulants. Thromb Res. 2015 Sep;136(3):582-9.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7311195
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26210891?tool=bestpractice.com
Check adherence to anticoagulation treatment.[12]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Venous thromboembolic diseases: diagnosis, management and thrombophilia testing. Aug 2023 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng158
Address other sources of hypercoagulability (e.g., underlying malignancy).[12]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Venous thromboembolic diseases: diagnosis, management and thrombophilia testing. Aug 2023 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng158
Consider other reasons for reduced efficacy of anticoagulation (e.g., rivaroxaban not being taken with food).[139]Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Rivaroxaban (Xarelto): reminder that 15 mg and 20 mg tablets should be taken with food. July 2019 [internet publication].
https://www.gov.uk/drug-safety-update/rivaroxaban-xarelto-reminder-that-15-mg-and-20-mg-tablets-should-be-taken-with-food
In the absence of any of the above issues, options include:[12]National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Venous thromboembolic diseases: diagnosis, management and thrombophilia testing. Aug 2023 [internet publication].
https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng158