Prognosis is highly dependent on the stage at diagnosis. The most important prognostic indicators are Breslow's depth of the tumour, ulceration, mitotic rate, and lymph node status.[14]National Comprehensive Cancer Network. NCCN clinical practice guidelines in oncology: melanoma - cutaneous [internet publication].
https://www.nccn.org/guidelines/category_1
[63]Breslow A. Thickness, cross-sectional areas and depth of invasion in the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma. Ann Surg. 1970 Nov;172(5):902-8.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1397358
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/5477666?tool=bestpractice.com
[91]Valsecchi ME, Silbermins D, de Rosa N, et al. Lymphatic mapping and sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with melanoma: a meta-analysis. J Clin Oncol. 2011 Apr 10;29(11):1479-87.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21383281?tool=bestpractice.com
An unfavourable prognosis is associated with histological features of greater depth of invasion, ulceration, increased mitotic count, vascular invasion, regression, and the presence of microscopic satellites.[14]National Comprehensive Cancer Network. NCCN clinical practice guidelines in oncology: melanoma - cutaneous [internet publication].
https://www.nccn.org/guidelines/category_1
There is some evidence to suggest that patients with melanoma who are from ethnic minorities, especially black patients, experience worse health outcomes with regard to mortality.[180]Lam M, Zhu JW, Hu A, et al. Racial differences in the prognosis and survival of cutaneous melanoma from 1990 to 2020 in North America: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Cutan Med Surg. 2022 Mar-Apr;26(2):181-8.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/12034754211052866?rfr_dat=cr_pub++0pubmed&url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori%3Arid%3Acrossref.org
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34676795?tool=bestpractice.com
Five-year survival rates are:[10]National Cancer Institute. SEER. Cancer stat facts: melanoma of the skin [internet publication].
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/melan.html
Cancer localised to primary site (stage 0-II): 99.4%
Cancer metastasised to regional lymph nodes (stage III): 68%
Distant metastases (stage IV): 29.8%
Among patients with stage I and stage II disease, risk factors for metastasis are:[181]Calomarde-Rees L, García-Calatayud R, Requena Caballero C, et al. Risk factors for lymphatic and hematogenous dissemination in patients with stages I to II cutaneous melanoma. JAMA Dermatol. 2019 Jun 1;155(6):679-87.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamadermatology/fullarticle/2731993
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31042264?tool=bestpractice.com