Subsequent pregnancies
GDM recurs in 30% to 84% of subsequent pregnancies.[17]Kim C, Berger DK, Chamany S. Recurrence of gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review. Diabetes Care. 2007 May;30(5):1314-9.
https://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/30/5/1314.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17290037?tool=bestpractice.com
Risk factors for GDM recurrence are older age, increased BMI, and higher weight gain between pregnancies.[95]Schwartz N, Nachum Z, Green MS. Risk factors of gestational diabetes mellitus recurrence: a meta-analysis. Endocrine. 2016 Sep;53(3):662-71.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27000082?tool=bestpractice.com
Development of type 2 diabetes
Women diagnosed with GDM are over 20 times more likely to go on to develop type 2 diabetes than the general population.[96]Daly B, Toulis KA, Thomas N, et al. Increased risk of ischemic heart disease, hypertension, and type 2 diabetes in women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus, a target group in general practice for preventive interventions: A population-based cohort study. PLoS Med. 2018 Jan;15(1):e1002488.
https://www.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002488
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29337985?tool=bestpractice.com
A European Society of Cardiology report highlighted that:[97]Maas AHEM, Rosano G, Cifkova R, et al. Cardiovascular health after menopause transition, pregnancy disorders, and other gynaecologic conditions: a consensus document from European cardiologists, gynaecologists, and endocrinologists. Eur Heart J. 2021 Mar 7;42(10):967-84.
https://www.doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa1044
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33495787?tool=bestpractice.com
An estimated 10% of women with GDM will have diabetes mellitus diagnosed soon after delivery with at least another 20% affected by impaired glucose metabolism at postnatal screening.
Of the remaining women, 20% to 60% will develop type 2 diabetes mellitus later in life, often within 5 to 10 years after the index pregnancy. The risk is greatest in the first year following delivery but persists for 25 years.[98]Lowe WL Jr, Scholtens DM, Lowe LP, et al. Association of gestational diabetes with maternal disorders of glucose metabolism and childhood adiposity. JAMA. 2018 Sep 11;320(10):1005-16.
https://www.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2018.11628
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30208453?tool=bestpractice.com
Women with a history of GDM should therefore be screened regularly for type 2 diabetes, even late in life.[99]Diaz-Santana MV, O'Brien KM, Park YM, et al. Persistence of risk for type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care. 2022 Apr 1;45(4):864-70.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35104325?tool=bestpractice.com
A post-hoc analysis of the Diabetes Prevention Program in the US demonstrated that predominantly middle-aged women with a self-reported history of GDM had approximately a 50% reduction in the incidence of diabetes with an intensive lifestyle programme or the use of metformin.[100]Ratner RE, Christophi CA, Metzger BE, et al; Diabetes Prevention Program Research Group. Prevention of diabetes in women with a history of gestational diabetes: effects of metformin and lifestyle interventions. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2008 Dec;93(12):4774-9.
https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article/93/12/4774/2627340
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18826999?tool=bestpractice.com
Ten-year incidence is over 50%.[101]Li Z, Cheng Y, Wang D, et al. Incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus after gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 170,139 women. J Diabetes Res. 2020;2020:3076463.
https://www.doi.org/10.1155/2020/3076463
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32405502?tool=bestpractice.com
The risk of developing type 2 diabetes after GDM is roughly equivalent across ethnic groups.[102]Vounzoulaki E, Khunti K, Abner SC, et al. Progression to type 2 diabetes in women with a known history of gestational diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ. 2020 May 13;369:m1361.
https://www.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1361
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32404325?tool=bestpractice.com