In general, the prognosis in patients with mild disease is favourable; however, patients with severe disease often have a poor prognosis. Prognosis varies according to a number of factors, including a patient's immunological status and age. Other factors associated with a poor outcome include hypotension, oliguria, jaundice, hyperkalaemia, and an abnormal chest auscultation; all present on initial evaluation.[86]Doudier B, Garcia S, Quennee V, et al. Prognostic factors associated with severe leptospirosis. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2006 Apr;12(4):299-300.
https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(14)61595-0/fulltext
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16524404?tool=bestpractice.com
[87]Panaphut T, Domrongkitchaiporn S, Thinkamrop B. Prognostic factors of death in leptospirosis: a prospective cohort study in Khon Kaen, Thailand. Int J Infect Dis. 2002 Mar;6(1):52-9.
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(02)90137-2/pdf
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12044303?tool=bestpractice.com
[88]Abela-Ridder B, Sikkema R, Hartskeerl RA. Estimating the burden of human leptospirosis. Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2010 Nov;36 Suppl 1:S5-7.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20688484?tool=bestpractice.com
Cases in which chest radiographs detect air-space nodules have been associated with severe leptospirosis.[68]Chawalparit O, Charoensak A, Niwattayakul K, et al. Radiographic chest findings and clinical correlations in leptospirosis. J Med Assoc Thai. 2007 May;90(5):918-24.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17596046?tool=bestpractice.com
One study found two factors independently predictive of development towards severe leptospirosis: clinical jaundice and cardiac damage seen either clinically or on ECG.[89]Abgueguen P, Delbos V, Blanvillain J, et al. Clinical aspects and prognostic factors of leptospirosis in adults. Retrospective study in France. J Infect. 2008 Sep;57(3):171-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18656263?tool=bestpractice.com
The median mortality rate of untreated leptospirosis was 2.2% in one systematic review, with a broad range of 0% to 39.7%.[73]Taylor AJ, Paris DH, Newton PN. A systematic review of the mortality from untreated leptospirosis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9(6):e0003866.
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0003866
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26110270?tool=bestpractice.com
During the immune phase, mortality varies between 5% and 40%.[2]Vijayachari P, Sugunan AP, Shriram AN. Leptospirosis: an emerging global, public health problem. J Biosci. 2008 Nov;33(4):557-69.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19208981?tool=bestpractice.com
Anicteric leptospirosis carries a mortality of less than 1%, whereas icteric leptospirosis (better known as Weil's disease), involving jaundice, haemorrhage, and acute renal failure, has a mortality rate of 5% to 15%.[50]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC Yellow Book 2024: health information for international travel. Section 5: travel-associated infections & diseases - leptospirosis. May 2023 [internet publication].
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-related-infectious-diseases/leptospirosis
Severe leptospirosis with pulmonary haemorrhage has a mortality rate of >50%.[50]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. CDC Yellow Book 2024: health information for international travel. Section 5: travel-associated infections & diseases - leptospirosis. May 2023 [internet publication].
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/travel-related-infectious-diseases/leptospirosis
Death may occur secondary to cardiac arrhythmias, cardiac failure, or adrenal haemorrhage.
Populations at risk of severe disease
It is of particular relevance to mention that advanced age is associated with greater morbidity and mortality. In a systematic review that assessed the mortality of untreated leptospirosis, older patients aged >60 years had a mortality rate of 60%.[73]Taylor AJ, Paris DH, Newton PN. A systematic review of the mortality from untreated leptospirosis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9(6):e0003866.
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0003866
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26110270?tool=bestpractice.com
Older patients with Weil's disease have higher mortality.[5]World Health Organization. Human leptospirosis: guidance for diagnosis, surveillance and control. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2003.
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42667
Pregnant patients can have different outcomes.[54]Selvarajah S, Ran S, Roberts NW, et al. Leptospirosis in pregnancy: a systematic review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Sep;15(9):e0009747.
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0009747
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34520461?tool=bestpractice.com
The fetus can acquire infection during the acute/initial phase through placental transmission; this presentation can lead to fetal death. In the absence of bacteraemia, the fetus and the mother can be at risk for morbidity and mortality if the mother experiences severe infection complications, such as high fever and haemodynamic disturbances.[55]Puliyath G, Singh S. Leptospirosis in pregnancy. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2012 Oct;31(10):2491-6.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22549729?tool=bestpractice.com
Women are more likely to have a spontaneous abortion if leptospirosis occurs early in pregnancy.[11]Shaked Y, Shpilberg O, Samra D, et al. Leptospirosis in pregnancy and its effect on the fetus: case report and review. Clin Infect Dis. 1993 Aug;17(2):241-3.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8399874?tool=bestpractice.com
Recurrence
After a patient recovers from leptospirosis, they may become immune to re-infection by the same serovar or strain. Serovar-specific antibodies are thought to be protective as long as their concentration is high.[5]World Health Organization. Human leptospirosis: guidance for diagnosis, surveillance and control. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2003.
https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42667
Chronic leptospirosis (renal sequelae)
Limited data suggest that there may be an association between leptospirosis and chronic kidney disease, but larger studies are needed to confirm whether leptospirosis is a risk factor for chronic kidney disease.[90]Carrillo-Larco RM, Altez-Fernandez C, Acevedo-Rodriguez JG, et al. Leptospirosis as a risk factor for chronic kidney disease: a systematic review of observational studies. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2019 May;13(5):e0007458.
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0007458
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31120876?tool=bestpractice.com