Results of one study on the natural history of symptomatic lumbar stenosis showed that at 4 years, walking tolerance declined in about 30% of patients, but symptoms improved or remained stable in the remainder.[81]Johnsson KE, Rosen I, Uden A. The natural course of lumbar spinal stenosis. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 1992 Jun;(279):82-6.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1534726?tool=bestpractice.com
Some predictive signs that clinical symptoms may worsen include dural sac cross-sectional area <50 mm2, presence of radicular symptoms and back pain, degenerative spondylolisthesis and/or scoliosis, and symptom duration >1 year.[23]Zileli M, Crostelli M, Grimaldi M, et al. Natural course and diagnosis of lumbar spinal stenosis: WFNS spine committee recommendations. World Neurosurg X. 2020 Jul;7:100073.
https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.wnsx.2020.100073
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32613187?tool=bestpractice.com
Prognosis in patients initially treated with medical or physical therapy is variable. Studies show that among treated patients without surgery, about 50% remain unchanged, 25% improve, and 25% worsen (mean follow-up was 49 months, range 10 to 103 months).[81]Johnsson KE, Rosen I, Uden A. The natural course of lumbar spinal stenosis. Clin Orthop Relat Res. 1992 Jun;(279):82-6.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1534726?tool=bestpractice.com
Several prospective studies have shown significantly improved long-term (4 to 6 years) outcomes in patients treated surgically rather than nonsurgically.[82]Tenhula J, Lenke LG, Bridwell KH, et al. Prospective functional evaluation of the surgical treatment of neurogenic claudication in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis. J Spinal Disord. 2000 Aug;13(4):276-82.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10941885?tool=bestpractice.com
[83]Amundsen T, Weber H, Nordal HJ, et al. Lumbar spinal stenosis: conservative or surgical management?: a prospective 10-year study. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2000 Jun 1;25(11):1424-35.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10828926?tool=bestpractice.com
In the Maine Lumbar Spine Study, patients undergoing surgery as their initial treatment had better leg pain relief and greater back-related functional status after 8-10 years of follow-up. However, favorable long-term outcomes were only reported by about one half of the patients, regardless of the initial treatment given.[84]Atlas SJ, Keller RB, Wu YA, et al. Long-term outcomes of surgical and nonsurgical management of lumbar spinal stenosis: 8 to 10 year results from the Maine lumbar spine study. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2005 Apr 15;30(8):936-43.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15834339?tool=bestpractice.com
Short-term and intermediate surgical outcomes are generally very good to excellent. A success rate of 78% to 88% was found at 6 weeks and 6 months; this rate dropped to 70% at 1 year and 5 years.[85]Javid MJ, Hadar EJ. Long-term follow-up review of patients who underwent laminectomy for lumbar stenosis: a prospective study. J Neurosurg. 1998 Jul;89(1):1-7.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9647165?tool=bestpractice.com
Analysis of a 5-year follow-up of post-laminectomy patients showed excellent results at 2 years (67%), but this fell to only 52% at 5 years, and 18% of patients underwent another operation.[86]Jonsson B, Annertz M, Sjoberg C, et al. A prospective and consecutive study of surgically treated lumbar spinal stenosis. part II: five-year follow-up by an independent observer. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 1997 Dec 15;22(24):2938-44.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9431630?tool=bestpractice.com
Studies show that surgery can be performed safely with satisfactory results in many patients aged 70-89 years who can otherwise tolerate the procedure.[87]Vitaz TW, Raque GH, Shields CB, et al. Surgical treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis in patients older than 75 years of age. J Neurosurg. 1999 Oct;91(2 Suppl):181-5.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10505502?tool=bestpractice.com
[88]Kalbarczyk A, Lukes A, Seiler RW. Surgical treatment of lumbar spinal stenosis in the elderly. Acta Neurochir (Wien). 1998;140(7):637-41.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9781274?tool=bestpractice.com
Recurrence of back pain can occur after surgery. Patients may initially have improvement in symptoms and subsequently deteriorate over time. One study found 27% recurrence of symptoms after 5 years of follow-up.[89]Caputy AJ, Luessenhop AJ. Long-term evaluation for decompressive surgery for degenerative lumbar stenosis. J Neurosurg. 1992 Nov;77(5):669-76.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1403105?tool=bestpractice.com
Re-stenosis at the operated level, stenosis at a new level, development of herniated lumbar disk, and late instability are among the reasons for failed surgery.[89]Caputy AJ, Luessenhop AJ. Long-term evaluation for decompressive surgery for degenerative lumbar stenosis. J Neurosurg. 1992 Nov;77(5):669-76.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1403105?tool=bestpractice.com
Generally, 75% of these surgical failures respond to further surgery. Results from the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT) trial demonstrated that patients treated nonoperatively improved minimally while those treated surgically improved significantly more, at up to 4 years of follow-up.[60]Weinstein JN, Lurie JD, Tosteson TD, et al. Surgical compared with nonoperative treatment for lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis: four-year results in the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT) randomized and observational cohorts. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2009 Jun;91(6):1295-304.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2686131
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19487505?tool=bestpractice.com
This was apparent in all primary and secondary outcomes including SF-36 bodily pain, physical function, and in the Oswestry Disability Index. Similar findings were observed for patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis.[60]Weinstein JN, Lurie JD, Tosteson TD, et al. Surgical compared with nonoperative treatment for lumbar degenerative spondylolisthesis: four-year results in the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT) randomized and observational cohorts. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2009 Jun;91(6):1295-304.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2686131
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19487505?tool=bestpractice.com