Patients who receive therapy within the first week of illness will generally show signs of improvement, including defervescence, within 72 hours of initiating doxycycline therapy; lack of improvement suggests the need to search for an alternative diagnosis.[1]Biggs HM, Behravesh CB, Bradley KK, et al. Diagnosis and management of tickborne rickettsial diseases: Rocky Mountain spotted fever and other spotted fever group rickettsioses, ehrlichioses, and anaplasmosis - United States. MMWR Recomm Rep. 2016;65:1-44.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/rr/rr6502a1.htm
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27172113?tool=bestpractice.com
[14]Buckingham SC, Marshall GS, Schutze GE, et al. Clinical and laboratory features, hospital course, and outcome of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in children. J Pediatr. 2007 Feb;150(2):180-4, 184.e1.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17236897?tool=bestpractice.com
Mortality
Most patients will recover completely, especially if appropriate antibiotic therapy is initiated within the first 5 days of illness. In the pre-antibiotic era, roughly 30% of patients with Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) died. With improvements in supportive care and the development of effective antibiotics, the case fatality rate has steadily declined. Since 2001, <1% of reported RMSF cases in the US have had fatal outcomes.[2]Drexler NA, Dahlgren FS, Heitman KN, et al. National surveillance of spotted fever group rickettsioses in the United States, 2008-2012. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2016;94:26-34.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26324732?tool=bestpractice.com
[3]Openshaw JJ, Swerdlow DL, Krebs JW, et al. Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the United States, 2000-2007: interpreting contemporary increases in incidence. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010;83:174-82.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20595498?tool=bestpractice.com
However, this decline may be partially due to changes in diagnostic and reporting practices; clinical reviews suggest 5% to 10% of RMSF cases are fatal.[3]Openshaw JJ, Swerdlow DL, Krebs JW, et al. Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the United States, 2000-2007: interpreting contemporary increases in incidence. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010;83:174-82.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20595498?tool=bestpractice.com
[5]Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) - epidemiology and statistics. Aug 2022 [internet publication].
https://www.cdc.gov/rmsf/stats/index.html
A more virulent strain of RMSF has been reported in Mexico, with a case fatality rate of 40%, including in appropriately treated cases.[20]US Department of Health & Human Services. Rickettsiosis subcommittee report to the tick-borne disease working group. Jan 2020 [internet publication].
https://www.hhs.gov/ash/advisory-committees/tickbornedisease/reports/rickettsiosis-subcomm-2020/index.html
The most significant risk factor for death from RMSF is delay in initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy.
An analysis of reported RMSF cases from 1999 to 2007 found that mortality was increased among children aged 5 to 9 years, adults aged 70 years and older, American Indians, immunosuppressed people, and people presenting during the period from 1 March through to 31 May.[27]Dahlgren FS, Holman RC, Paddock CD, et al. Fatal Rocky Mountain spotted fever in the United States, 1999-2007. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 Apr;86(4):713-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22492159?tool=bestpractice.com
Older studies have also linked mortality to factors that lead to delays in (or omission of) therapy, such as lack of known history of tick attachment; presentation without headache; delayed presentation of the rash, or delay in its recognition; and presentation with a first symptom other than fever, rash, or headache.[15]Helmick CG, Bernard KW, D'Angelo LJ. Rocky Mountain spotted fever: clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological features of 262 cases. J Infect Dis. 1984 Oct;150(4):480-8.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/6491365?tool=bestpractice.com
[28]Holman RC, Paddock CD, Curns AT, et al. Analysis of risk factors for fatal Rocky Mountain spotted fever: evidence for superiority of tetracyclines for therapy. J Infect Dis. 2001 Dec 1;184(11):1437-44.
http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/184/11/1437.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11709786?tool=bestpractice.com
[29]Hattwick MA, Retailliau H, O'Brien RJ, et al. Fatal Rocky Mountain spotted fever. JAMA. 1978 Sep 29;240(14):1499-503.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/682354?tool=bestpractice.com
Morbidity
Roughly 10% to 15% of surviving patients are discharged from hospital with residual, and in some cases permanent, neurological deficits.[1]Biggs HM, Behravesh CB, Bradley KK, et al. Diagnosis and management of tickborne rickettsial diseases: Rocky Mountain spotted fever and other spotted fever group rickettsioses, ehrlichioses, and anaplasmosis - United States. MMWR Recomm Rep. 2016;65:1-44.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/rr/rr6502a1.htm
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27172113?tool=bestpractice.com
Neurological complications include cognitive impairment, paresis, hearing loss, blindness, neuropathy, and cortical brain dysfunction. Non-neurological sequelae occur less commonly and are principally related to cutaneous necrosis, which can require skin grafting or amputation of affected digits or limbs.[1]Biggs HM, Behravesh CB, Bradley KK, et al. Diagnosis and management of tickborne rickettsial diseases: Rocky Mountain spotted fever and other spotted fever group rickettsioses, ehrlichioses, and anaplasmosis - United States. MMWR Recomm Rep. 2016;65:1-44.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/rr/rr6502a1.htm
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27172113?tool=bestpractice.com
[14]Buckingham SC, Marshall GS, Schutze GE, et al. Clinical and laboratory features, hospital course, and outcome of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in children. J Pediatr. 2007 Feb;150(2):180-4, 184.e1.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17236897?tool=bestpractice.com
[30]Archibald LK, Sexton DJ. Long-term sequelae of Rocky Mountain spotted fever. Clin Infect Dis. 1995 May;20(5):1122-5.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7619986?tool=bestpractice.com
In children, independent risk factors for adverse neurological outcomes include coma and requirement for fluid boluses and/or inotropic support.[14]Buckingham SC, Marshall GS, Schutze GE, et al. Clinical and laboratory features, hospital course, and outcome of Rocky Mountain spotted fever in children. J Pediatr. 2007 Feb;150(2):180-4, 184.e1.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17236897?tool=bestpractice.com