GridEdge '25 Tutorial: Distribution load forecasting in an Electrification World

This tutorial covers the principles of load forecasting for distribution planning with a focus on the change in growth and characteristics of load introduced by electrification. The course begins with the planning process and load forecast as its first building block. It will cover the key requirements of a robust and defendable forecast via bottom-up and top-down approaches, will review several proven methods, and will discuss modern techniques for end-use growth to forecast electrification trends. Instructors will discuss the concepts related to magnitude, temporal (e.g., 8,760-hr forecasts), spatial, and weather normalization aspects of forecast. The course will study legacy methods the industry used for forecasting in past when it faced major load. The course drills down into different components of transportation and stationary electrification forecast including light, medium and heavy vehicles, transit, charging networks, and building electrification. Finally, approaches to address uncertainty in forecast and its implications will be discussed.