Table 4

Summary of ROC analysis for existing triage tools predicting death without organ support

Triage tool	n	C-statistic	Cut point	Sensitivity (95% CI)	Specificity (95% CI)	Positive predictive value (95% CI)	Negative predictive value (95% CI)	Proportion test positive
CURB-65	20 716	0.82 (0.82, 0.83)	(>1)	0.86 (0.85 to 0.87)	0.67 (0.66 to 0.68)	0.27 (0.26 to 0.28)	0.97 (0.97 to 0.97)	0.39
CRB-65	20 716	0.75 (0.75, 0.76)	(>0)	0.96 (0.95 to 0.97)	0.45 (0.44 to 0.46)	0.20 (0.19 to 0.20)	0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)	0.60
PMEWS	20 492	0.78 (0.77, 0.78)	(>2)	0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)	0.28 (0.27 to 0.28)	0.16 (0.15 to 0.17)	0.99 (0.99 to 0.99)	0.76
NEWS2 (score)	20 594	0.75 (0.74, 0.76)	(>4)	0.78 (0.76 to 0.79)	0.60 (0.59 to 0.60)	0.21 (0.20 to 0.22)	0.95 (0.95 to 0.95)	0.45
NEWS2 (rule)	20 594	0.67 (0.67, 0.68)	(>0)	0.84 (0.83 to 0.86)	0.51 (0.50 to 0.51)	0.19 (0.18 to 0.20)	0.96 (0.95 to 0.96)	0.54
SFAHP (6-point rule)	19 858	0.70 (0.69, 0.71)	(>0)	0.78 (0.77 to 0.80)	0.62 (0.61 to 0.63)	0.22 (0.21 to 0.23)	0.95 (0.95 to 0.96)	0.43
SFAHP (7-point rule)	20 682	0.67 (0.67, 0.68)	(>0)	0.90 (0.89 to 0.91)	0.45 (0.44 to 0.45)	0.18 (0.18 to 0.19)	0.97 (0.97 to 0.97)	0.60
WHO algorithm	20 891	0.62 (0.61, 0.62)	(>0)	0.99 (0.98 to 0.99)	0.25 (0.24 to 0.26)	0.15 (0.15 to 0.16)	0.99 (0.99 to 0.99)	0.78

NEWS2, National Early Warning Score version 2; PMEWS, Pandemic Modified Early Warning Score; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; SFAHP, swine flu adult hospital pathway.