Table 6

Prognostic factors for unfavourable recovery at 3 and 12 months

	3 months		12 months
Variables	OR (95%CI)	p Value	OR (95% CI)	p Value
Age
Gender	0.57 (0.33 to 0.98)	0.040
Body mass index
Duration of complaints (ref = 1–2 months)
2–6 months	2.32 (0.99 to 5.38)	0.051	4.04 (1.66 to 9.82)	0.002
6–12 months	2.86 (1.14 to 7.21)	0.026	4.10 (1.62 to 10.40)	0.003
12+ months	2.51 (1.22 to 5.16)	0.013	6.11 (2.56 to 14.59)	<0.001
Allocated preferred treatment (ref = no preference)
Not allocated
Allocated
Recruitment			0.50 (0.28 to 0.92)	0.025
Bilaterality	1.69 (0.99 to 2.87)	0.054
Work type (ref=not employed)
Sedentary	0.37 (0.19 to 0.73)	0.004
Active	0.51 (0.26 to 1.03)	0.06
Sport
Baseline usual/rest pain	1.01 (1.00 to 1.03)	0.043
Baseline worse/on activity pain
Anterior Knee Pain Scale
Functional Index Questionnaire
R²	0.17		0.09
AUC	0.706		0.648

Variable ‘treatment’ not presented, but was included in the final 3-month model (not significant).
Backward selection: p(IN)=0.05, p(OUT)=0.10.