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Original research
Adult palliative care 2004–2030 population study: estimates and projections in Malaysia
  1. Su Lan Yang1,
  2. Yuan Liang Woon1,
  3. Cindy Cy Oun Teoh2,
  4. Chin Tho Leong1 and
  5. Richard Boon Leong Lim2
  1. 1 Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Institute for Clinical Research, National Institute of Health, Setia Alam, Selangor, Malaysia
  2. 2 Department of Palliative Medicine, Hospital Selayang, Batu Caves, Selangor, Malaysia
  1. Correspondence to Su Lan Yang, Centre for Clinical Epidemiology, Institute for Clinical Research, National Institute of Health, Setia Alam, Selangor, Malaysia; yslan89{at}hotmail.com

Abstract

Objectives To estimate past trends and future projection of adult palliative care needs in Malaysia.

Methods This is a population-based secondary data analysis using the national mortality registry from 2004 to 2014. Past trend estimation was conducted using Murtagh’s minimum and maximum methods and Gómez-Batiste’s method. The estimated palliative care needs were stratified by age groups, gender and administrative states in Malaysia. With this, the projection of palliative care needs up to 2030 was conducted under the assumption that annual change remains constant.

Results The palliative care needs in Malaysia followed an apparent upward trend over the years regardless of the estimation methods. Murtagh’s minimum estimation method showed that palliative care needs grew 40% from 71 675 cases in 2004 to 100 034 cases in 2014. The proportion of palliative care needs in relation to deaths hovered at 71% in the observed years. In 2030, Malaysia should anticipate the population needs to be at least 239 713 cases (240% growth from 2014), with the highest needs among age group ≥80-year-old in both genders. Sarawak, Perak, Johor, Selangor and Kedah will become the top five Malaysian states with the highest number of needs in 2030.

Conclusion The need for palliative care in Malaysia will continue to rise and surpass its service provision. This trend demands a stepped-up provision from the national health system with advanced integration of palliative care services to narrow the gap between needs and supply.

  • palliative care
  • projection
  • Malaysia
  • population based estimation
  • need assessment

Data availability statement

Data are available on reasonable request. Mortality data were obtained from the National Registration Department and the Department of Statistics Malaysia on request. Population projection data were obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia website. Mortality projection data were obtained by personal contact with author Ngataman et al.

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjspcare-2020-002283

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    Data availability statement

    Data are available on reasonable request. Mortality data were obtained from the National Registration Department and the Department of Statistics Malaysia on request. Population projection data were obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia website. Mortality projection data were obtained by personal contact with author Ngataman et al.

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    Footnotes

    • Contributors SLY, YLW and CCOT have contributed to the conception or design of the study; SLY, YLW and CTL have contributed to data collection; SLY, YLW and CTL have contributed to the data analysis; SLY, YLW, CCOT and RL have contributed to data interpretation; SLY drafted the manuscript; SLY, YLW, CCOT and RL were involved in critical revision of the manuscript. All authors gave their final approval of the version to be published.

    • Funding This study was fully funded by the operating budget of the Institute for Clinical Research, Ministry of Health Malaysia.

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    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

    • Supplemental material This content has been supplied by the author(s). It has not been vetted by BMJ Publishing Group Limited (BMJ) and may not have been peer-reviewed. Any opinions or recommendations discussed are solely those of the author(s) and are not endorsed by BMJ. BMJ disclaims all liability and responsibility arising from any reliance placed on the content. Where the content includes any translated material, BMJ does not warrant the accuracy and reliability of the translations (including but not limited to local regulations, clinical guidelines, terminology, drug names and drug dosages), and is not responsible for any error and/or omissions arising from translation and adaptation or otherwise.