Patient characteristics by risk score threshold, four models: IP, IPAE, IPAEOP, IPAEOPGP
| Risk score 50+ | Risk score 30+ | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IP Data | IPAE Data | IPAEOP Data | IPAEOPGP Data | IP Data | IPAE Data | IPAEOP Data | IPAEOPGP Data | |
| Number of patients | 8743 | 9473 | 9892 | 10 545 | 23 912 | 25 021 | 26 304 | 31 653 |
| Patients with admission next 12 months | 4627 | 5027 | 5172 | 5669 | 10 062 | 10 554 | 11 011 | 13 196 |
| Mean age | 73.9 | 72.3 | 71.2 | 72.2 | 75.3 | 74.0 | 73.4 | 73.9 |
| 18–39 | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| 40–54 | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
| 55–64 | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% |
| 65–74 | 14.4% | 13.9% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 13.7% |
| 75–84 | 30.5% | 28.9% | 28.2% | 27.4% | 32.1% | 31.1% | 30.3% | 29.6% |
| 85+ | 33.3% | 31.8% | 29.3% | 32.6% | 35.5% | 34.1% | 32.7% | 34.4% |
| Female | 55.2% | 55.2% | 54.9% | 54.7% | 56.9% | 57.1% | 56.6% | 56.5% |
| Practice IMD | 24.6 | 24.9 | 24.8 | 24.3 | 24.2 | 24.3 | 24.3 | 23.8 |
| Ischaemic heart disease | 36.2% | 34.2% | 33.2% | 32.1% | 29.8% | 28.4% | 27.8% | 25.2% |
| Angina | 21.7% | 20.5% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 17.3% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 14.5% |
| Hypertension | 64.5% | 61.2% | 59.9% | 59.0% | 59.4% | 56.7% | 55.1% | 50.9% |
| CHF | 19.2% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.7% |
| CVD | 21.7% | 20.1% | 19.3% | 18.1% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 13.3% |
| COPD | 23.4% | 21.4% | 20.6% | 19.1% | 17.2% | 16.3% | 15.7% | 13.4% |
| Asthma | 21.3% | 20.9% | 20.1% | 18.1% | 17.4% | 16.6% | 16.1% | 13.8% |
| Diabetes | 34.1% | 32.4% | 31.6% | 28.8% | 30.1% | 28.8% | 27.6% | 23.6% |
| Renal failure | 16.5% | 14.6% | 14.2% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% |
| Any long-term conditions | 89.8% | 87.0% | 85.8% | 85.0% | 86.6% | 83.6% | 81.4% | 75.2% |
| Any cancer | 15.4% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% |
| Alcohol misuse | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% |
| Mental illness | 32.0% | 30.6% | 28.9% | 27.2% | 23.5% | 22.3% | 21.3% | 18.6% |
| Number of long-term conditions | 2.67 | 2.51 | 2.43 | 2.31 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 2.02 | 1.79 |
| Charlson Index | 3.96 | 3.69 | 3.55 | 3.28 | 3.09 | 2.95 | 2.82 | 2.43 |
| Emergency admission 1 year previously | 2.62 | 2.43 | 2.34 | 2.20 | 1.64 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| Emergency admission 2 years previously | 1.78 | 1.67 | 1.61 | 1.50 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 0.91 |
| No emergency admission in the previous 2 years | 0.6% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 16.2% |
| Elective admission 1 year previously | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Elective admission 2 years previously | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| Any day case 1 year previously | 31.9% | 30.8% | 31.6% | 28.7% | 31.5% | 30.7% | 30.4% | 26.9% |
| Any day case 2 years previously | 28.9% | 27.6% | 28.0% | 25.7% | 27.8% | 26.9% | 26.7% | 23.7% |
| Emergency admission cost 1 year previously | £4500 | £4073 | £3920 | £3688 | £2893 | £2709 | £2604 | £2231 |
| Emergency admission cost 2 years previously | £2932 | £2675 | £2583 | £2422 | £1962 | £1822 | £1757 | £1521 |
| AE visits 1 year previously | 2.90 | 3.59 | 3.45 | 3.17 | 1.83 | 2.26 | 2.17 | 1.86 |
| AE visits 2 years previously | 1.90 | 2.40 | 2.31 | 2.10 | 1.23 | 1.52 | 1.46 | 1.25 |
| OP visits 1 year previously | 7.27 | 6.94 | 9.65 | 8.23 | 5.65 | 5.63 | 7.39 | 6.16 |
| OP visits 2 years previously | 4.30 | 4.10 | 5.92 | 5.08 | 3.39 | 3.38 | 4.54 | 3.81 |
| OP visits missed 1 year previously | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.74 | 0.65 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.53 | 0.44 |
| OP visits missed 2 years previously | 0.49 | 0.48 | 0.71 | 0.61 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| GP visits 1 year previously | 42.9 | 42.7 | 43.3 | 52.5 | 38.5 | 38.4 | 38.8 | 45.4 |
| GP visits 2 years previously | 35.5 | 35.2 | 35.7 | 42.5 | 32.4 | 32.1 | 32.5 | 37.7 |
| Any high-risk BNF codes | 73.9% | 71.6% | 72.2% | 84.0% | 69.3% | 67.5% | 68.1% | 79.8% |
| Number of high-risk BNF codes | 1.94 | 1.85 | 1.88 | 2.20 | 1.64 | 1.59 | 1.61 | 1.84 |
| High-blood pressure | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.0% |
| Smoker | 18.0% | 19.0% | 19.0% | 23.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| BMI 30+ | 16.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 17.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% | 18.0% |
| HbA1c >10 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Any Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 52.9% | 53.1% | 52.3% | 53.8% | 42.1% | 42.2% | 41.9% | 41.7% |
| Num Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.31 | 0.89 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.84 |
| 0 Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 47.1% | 46.9% | 47.7% | 46.2% | 57.9% | 57.8% | 58.1% | 58.3% |
| 1 Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 23.0% | 23.0% | 23.2% | 23.9% | 21.7% | 21.9% | 21.7% | 22.3% |
| 2 Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 12.5% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.9% |
| 3 Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% |
| 4+ Emergency admission in the next 12 months | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% |
| Emergency admission cost in the next 12 months | £2358 | £2266 | £2199 | £2270 | £1608 | £1575 | £1546 | £1507 |
| AE visits in the next 12 months | 1.88 | 2.11 | 2.04 | 2.04 | 1.24 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.29 |
Four models: IP, IPAE, IPAEOP, IPAEOPGP. Five site individual runs combined.
AE, accident and emergency; BMI, body mass index; BNF, British National Formulary; CHF, Congestive heart failure; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; GP, general practitioner; HbA1c, glycated haemoglobin; IMD, Index of Multiple Deprivation.