Table 3

Random-effects regression analyses* for potential short-term and long-term prognostic factors with PGICS and NDI as outcome, n=89

Potential prognostic factor n/obs† OR 3–15 m‡95% CIP valueP-eff.m.§
PGICS
Age 89/263 0.920.84 to 1.010.080.75
Neck disability 89/263 1.081.01 to 1.160.030.26
Average pain intensity 89/263 1.601.00 to 2.550.051.00
Depression 88/260 1.040.92 to 1.190.500.07
Fear of movement 89/263 0.980.87 to 1.090.670.48
Catastrophising 89/263 1.060.94 to 1.200.340.20
Social support 88/260 1.080.88 to 1.330.470.57
Recovery expectations 85/253 1.740.71 to 4.250.220.47
Chronic widespread pain 89/263 0.45
 No1.0
 Yes1.990.46 to 8.660.36
Leisure physical activity 89/263 0.36
 No/low intensity1.0
 Moderate/high intensity0.770.16 to 3.650.75
Physical workload 88/260 0.64
 Mostly sedentary1.0
 Low to heavy workload1.350.31 to 5.860.69
Dual-working 85/251 0.41
 No1.0
 Yes0.770.17 to 3.390.73
NDI
Age 89/2620.960.90 to 1.020.200.68
Neck disability 89/2621.051.01 to 1.110.020.31
Average pain intensity89/2621.170.84 to 1.630.350.67
Depression 88/2590.940.86 to 1.030.170.75
Fear of movement89/2620.990.92 to 1.070.870.88
Catastrophising 89/2620.03
 3 m¶1.100.98 to 1.240.12
 15 m¶0.930.83 to 1.050.23
Social support88/2591.080.93 to 1.260.320.72
Recovery expectations85/2530.730.39 to 1.370.330.37
Chronic widespread pain89/2620.10
 No1.0
 Yes0.720.26 to 1.990.53
Leisure physical activity 89/2620.36
 No/low intensity1.0
 Moderate/high intensity0.480.16 to 1.430.19
Physical workload88/2590.06
 Mostly sedentary1.0
 Low to heavy workload1.160.41 to 3.250.78
Dual-working85/2500.16
 No1.0
 Yes0.550.19 to 1.580.27

  • An OR>1 reflects a higher odds of clinical important improvement and an OR<1 reflects a lower odds of clinical important improvement.

  • Potential prognostic factors included in the development of the predictive models are presented in italics.

  • *Data from all three follow-ups (3, 9 and 15 months) were used in the analyses.

  • †Number of participants in the analyses/number of outcome observations in the analyses.

  • ‡ OR for clinically important improvement between 3 and 15 months.

  • §P value for the effect modification over time between 3 and 15 months from baseline.

  • ¶Results (OR, 95% CI and p values) for clinically important improvement at 3 and 15 months, respectively.

  • NDI, normalised Neck Disability Index; PGICS, Patient Global Impression of Change Scale.