β coefficients for the number of patients with acute ethanol intoxication from the univariate and multivariate GARCH model
| Variable | Univariate GARCH* model | Multivariate GARCH* model | ||||
| β coefficient | 95% CI | P value | β coefficient | 95% CI | P value | |
| Earthquake factors | ||||||
| Incidence of earthquake | 0.00 | (−0.12 to 0.12) | 0.95 | |||
| Number of earthquakes a day, times | −0.02 | (−0.06 to 0.03) | 0.46 | |||
| The depth of the epicentre, km | 0.00 | (−0.01 to 0.01) | 0.85 | |||
| The highest magnitude in a day | 0.00 | (−0.02 to 0.02) | 0.98 | |||
| The highest Shindo in a day | 0.00 | (−0.08 to 0.07) | 0.92 | |||
| Daytime earthquake† | −0.19 | (−0.40 to 0.01) | 0.06 | −0.18 | (−0.38 to 0.02) | 0.07 |
| Night-time earthquake‡ | 0.12 | (−0.12 to 0.35) | 0.34 | |||
| Date | ||||||
| Categories of day | ||||||
| Weekday | Reference | Reference | ||||
| The day before non-working day | 0.26 | (0.15 to 0.37) | <0.01 | 0.25 | (0.15 to 0.36) | <0.01 |
| Non-working day | 0.08 | (−0.01 to 0.17) | 0.05 | 0.08 | (−0.01 to 0.16) | 0.08 |
| Season | ||||||
| Spring | Reference | Reference | ||||
| Summer | 0.02 | (−0.09 to 0.13) | 0.73 | 0.02 | (−0.09 to 0.12) | 0.78 |
| Fall | 0.05 | (−0.06 to 0.17) | 0.35 | 0.03 | (−0.76 to 0.14) | 0.55 |
| Winter | 0.10 | (−0.01 to 0.22) | 0.07 | 0.12 | (0.02 to 0.23) | 0.02 |
Numbers in bold indicate that the p value is less than 0.05.
*GARCH, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The multivariate GARCH model was adjusted for variables found to have a p value of 0.2 or less in a simple GARCH model as well as year-fixed effect and changes in alcohol taxation.
†Daytime earthquake means that an earthquake was observed between 09:00 and 17:00.
‡Night-time earthquake means that earthquake was observed between 17:00 and mid-night.