Variables included in logistic regression (conditional and unconditional analysis)
| Cases n=142 | Controls n=550 | Conditional univariable | Unconditional univariable | ||
| n (%) | n (%) | P value | OR (95% CI) | OR (95% CI) | |
| Births, Deaths and Marriages* | |||||
| Father on Birth Certificate | 116 (81.7) | 498 (90.5) | 0.005 | 0.49 (0.30 to 0.80) | 0.47 (0.28 to 0.78) |
| Maternal age, mean, years | 25.3 | 29.5 | <0.001 | 0.88 (0.85 to 0.92) | 0.89 (0.86 to 0.92) |
| Paternal age, mean, years | 27.3 | 32.5 | <0.001 | 0.88 (0.85 to 0.92) | 0.89 (0.86 to 0.92) |
| Child protective services† | |||||
| Notification‡ | 64 (45.1) | 56 (10.2) | <0.001 | 8.59 (5.24 to 14.09) | 7.24 (4.70 to 11.14) |
| Investigation§ | 58 (40.8) | 47 (8.5) | <0.001 | 8.81 (5.25 to 14.79) | 7.39 (4.72 to 11.57) |
| Substantiation¶ | 53 (37.3) | 36 (6.5) | <0.001 | 9.53 (5.54 to 16.38) | 8.50 (5.26 to 13.73) |
| Behaviour/relationship** | 22 (15.5) | 15 (2.7) | <0.001 | 7.68 (3.61 to 16.35) | 6.54 (3.30 to 12.98) |
| Emotional abuse** | 10 (7.0) | 7 (1.3) | <0.001 | 6.24 (2.25 to 17.30) | 5.87 (2.20 to 15.72) |
| Neglect** | 26 (18.3) | 15 (2.7) | <0.001 | 9.19 (4.41 to 19.19) | 7.99 (4.11 to 15.57) |
| Physical abuse** | 22 (15.5) | 18 (3.3) | <0.001 | 5.90 (2.95 to 11.80) | 5.42 (2.82 to 10.42) |
| Sexual abuse** | 21 (14.8) | 17 (3.1) | <0.001 | 6.11 (2.98 to 12.51) | 5.44 (2.79 to 10.62) |
| Family Whānau Agreement†† | 15 (10.6) | 14 (2.5) | <0.001 | 4.59 (2.13 to 9.87) | 4.52 (2.13 to 9.61) |
| Family Group Conference‡‡ | 19 (13.4) | 16 (2.9) | <0.001 | 5.89 (2.77 to 12.51) | 5.16 (2.58 to 10.31) |
| Custody§§ | 24 (16.9) | 16 (2.9) | <0.001 | 6.81 (3.45 to 13.42) | 6.79 (3.50 to 13.18) |
| Mother/father abuse victim¶¶ | 21 (14.8) | 15 (2.7) | <0.001 | 6.52 (2.99 to 14.22) | 6.19 (3.10 to 12.35) |
| Mother/father youth justice*** | 30 (21.1) | 16 (2.9) | <0.001 | 9.28 (4.74 to 18.20) | 8.94 (4.71 to 16.95) |
| Sibling abuse victim¶¶ | 23 (16.2) | 15 (2.7) | <0.001 | 7.05 (3.49 to 14.23) | 6.89 (3.49 to 13.61) |
| Police††† | |||||
| IPV call-out to home‡‡‡ | 50 (35.2) | 68 (12.4) | <0.001 | 4.48 (2.81 to 7.12) | 3.85 (2.51 to 5.91) |
| IPV charge, conviction§§§ | 26 (18.3) | 31 (5.6) | <0.001 | 3.62 (2.08 to 6.31) | 3.75 (2.15 to 6.56) |
| Other violence§§§ | 33 (23.2) | 55 (10.0) | <0.001 | 2.71 (1.67 to 4.39) | 2.73 (1.69 to 4.40) |
| Drugs§§§ | 24 (16.9) | 37 (6.7) | <0.001 | 2.76 (1.59 to 4.78) | 2.82 (1.63 to 4.89) |
| Alcohol§§§ | 28 (19.7) | 68 (12.4) | 0.03 | 1.77 (1.08 to 2.91) | 1.74 (1.07 to 2.83) |
The p value is for the conditional univariable, but values were similar on both analyses.
*Information obtained from birth certificate through the Registrar of Births, Deaths and Marriages.
†Information obtained from the database of the statutory child protective services agency.
‡The statutory child protective services agency recorded a notification from anyone concerning the father (or mother’s partner), mother (or father’s partner) or any siblings or step-siblings, by the time of the baby’s birth.
§This means that child protective services recorded at least one notification as needing investigation. This does not include differential response, where a family was diverted to a non-governmental organisation for support.
¶Substantiation: a statutory social worker recorded a belief, at least once, that a child was in need of care and protection.
**These five categories are the categories used by child protective services to classify child abuse and neglect. They are only recorded when a notification has been substantiated. They require not only that a social worker formed a belief, but also that the social worker reached a conclusion as to the type(s) of abuse and recorded that on their database. They are not mutually exclusive.
††The next three variables are forms of action that can be taken by a statutory social worker. The first is an informal family agreement.
‡‡This is a process under child protective services legislation. The care and protection concerns are formally presented by the social worker to the family and they are given an opportunity to create a formal written plan to keep the child safe, which can then be approved by child protective services. If agreement can be reached, this process avoids the need to proceed to court.
§§Any recorded statutory action under the child protective services legislation where the Ministry took over responsibility for day-to-day care of a child, short or long-term. Some forms of short-term custody can be taken without recourse to the court.
¶¶On at least one occasion a statutory social worker recorded an opinion that one of the individuals named had been a victim of abuse.
***On at least one occasion it was recorded that the mother or father committed an offence while a juvenile which was managed through youth justice services rather than through the criminal justice system.
†††Information obtained from the database of the police.
‡‡‡It was recorded that the police attended the home for a report of IPV, whether or not charges followed.
§§§A formal charge or conviction for any of these offences was recorded concerning the father (or mother’s partner), mother (or father’s partner) or any siblings or step-siblings for any of the offences described, at the time of the baby’s birth.
I PV, intimate partner violence.