The efficiency of measures to reduce colonoscopy demand in 2014 (MISCAN-Colon predictions)*
| Measure | Colonoscopy demand (×1000) | Reduction in colonoscopy demand (×1000) | CRC deaths prevented (×1000) | Reduction in CRC deaths prevented (×1000) | Reduction in colonoscopy demand per CRC death not prevented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No measure (see also figure 7) | 64 | – | 7.71 | – | – |
| Postpone screening 63 year olds | 49 | 14 | 7.44 | 0.26 | 54 |
| Postpone screening 65 year olds | 49 | 15 | 7.46 | 0.25 | 60 |
| Postpone screening 67 year olds | 48 | 16 | 7.41 | 0.30 | 53 |
| Postpone screening 75 year olds† | 54 | 9 | 7.26 | 0.45 | 21 |
| Postpone screening 76 year olds† | 55 | 9 | 7.30 | 0.41 | 22 |
| Elevate the FIT cut-off to 275 ng/mL (47 µg/g) in 2014 | 36 | 28 | 7.30 | 0.40 | 68 |
*We modelled the cohort of screen-eligible individuals in the Netherlands in 2014 (ie, those aged 63, 65, 67, 75 and 76) and applied the observed attendance rate in the first half of 2014 and FIT test characteristics that were calibrated to the observed positivity and detection rates in the first half of 2014 (see also figure 7 legend). We modelled a scenario without measures, five scenarios in which screening was postponed in one of the age groups, and a scenario in which the cut-off for referral to colonoscopy was elevated to 275 ng/mL (47 µg/g). For each scenario, we determined the colonoscopy demand for 2014 as well as the lifetime number of CRC deaths prevented.
†Postponing screening in 75 and 76 year olds implies not screening them at all.
CRC, colorectal cancer; FIT, faecal immunochemical test.