Outcomes of the base case and sensitivity analyses with biennial FIT
| Start criterion | Benefits | Burdens | Harms | Ratios | ||||
| CRC cases prevented by screening | CRC deaths prevented by screening | Lifeyears gained by screening | Number of FITs | Number of individuals with ≥1 COL | Hospitalisations due to screening | NNScreen | NNScope | |
| Women – Switzerland | ||||||||
| Age 50 | 13.3 (REF) | 7.7 (REF) | 103.8 (REF) | 9655 (REF) | 589 (REF) | 0.207 (REF) | 1258 (REF) | 77 (REF) |
| Age 65 | 11.6 (–12.8%) | 6.8 (–11.7%) | 70.8 (–31.8%) | 4322 (–55.2%) | 341 (–42.1%) | 0.142 (–31.4%) | 637 (–49.4%) | 50 (–35.1%) |
| Risk 3% (base) | 11.1 (–16.5%) | 6.5 (–15.6%) | 69.7 (–32.9%) | 4130 (–57.2%) | 322 (–45.3%) | 0.137 (–33.8%) | 638 (–49.3%) | 50 (–35.1%) |
| Risk 3% (SA3) | 10.8 (–18.8%) | 6.3 (–18.2%) | 66.7 (–35.7%) | 3889 (–59.7%) | 306 (–48.0%) | 0.132 (–36.2%) | 616 (–51.0%) | 49 (–36.4%) |
| Risk 3% (SA4) | 11.4 (–14.3%) | 6.6 (–14.3%) | 72.3 (–30.3%) | 4359 (–54.9%) | 337 (–42.8%) | 0.141 (–31.9%) | 657 (–47.8%) | 51 (–33.8%) |
| Risk 3% (SA5) | 10.2 (–23.3%) | 6.0 (–22.1%) | 61.4 (–40.8%) | 3501 (–63.7%) | 280 (–52.5%) | 0.123 (–40.6%) | 588 (–53.3%) | 47 (–39.0%) |
| Risk 3% (SA7) | 10.8 (–18.8%) | 6.3 (–18.2%) | 80.4 (–22.5%) | 1953 (–79.8%) | 158 (–73.2%) | 0.121 (–41.5%) | 312 (–75.2%) | 25 (–67.5%) |
| Men – Switzerland | ||||||||
| Age 50 | 15.4 (REF) | 10.3 (REF) | 125.7 (REF) | 8852 (REF) | 613 (REF) | 0.193 (REF) | 858 (REF) | 59 (REF) |
| Age 60 | 14.1 (–8.4%) | 9.4 (–8.7%) | 101.4 (–19.3%) | 5211 (–41.1%) | 431 (–29.7%) | 0.145 (–24.9%) | 555 (–35.3%) | 46 (–22.0%) |
| Risk 3% (base) | 14.1 (–8.4%) | 9.5 (–7.8%) | 101.7 (–19.1%) | 5083 (–42.6%) | 420 (–31.5%) | 0.144 (–25.4%) | 537 (–37.4%) | 44 (–25.4%) |
| Risk 3% (SA3) | 14.0 (–9.1%) | 9.4 (–8.7%) | 101.2 (–19.5%) | 5039 (–43.1%) | 417 (–32.0%) | 0.144 (–25.4%) | 533 (–37.9%) | 44 (–25.4%) |
| Risk 3% (SA4) | 14.1 (–8.4%) | 9.5 (–7.8%) | 102.1 (–18.7%) | 5114 (–42.2%) | 422 (–31.2%) | 0.145 (–24.9%) | 538 (–37.3%) | 44 (–25.4%) |
| Risk 3% (SA5) | 14.1 (–8.4%) | 9.5 (–7.8%) | 102.4 (–18.5%) | 5159 (–41.7%) | 424 (–30.8%) | 0.146 (–24.4%) | 543 (–36.7%) | 45 (–23.7%) |
| Risk 3% (SA7) | 13.5 (–12.3%) | 9.2 (–10.7%) | 109.5 (–12.9%) | 2651 (–70.1%) | 214 (–65.1%) | 0.127 (–34.2%) | 289 (–66.3%) | 23 (–61.0%) |
| Women – The Netherlands | ||||||||
| Age 50 | 25.9 (REF) | 16.3 (REF) | 225.4 (REF) | 9513 (REF) | 620 (REF) | 0.307 (REF) | 584 (REF) | 38 (REF) |
| Age 65 | 23.5 (–9.3%) | 14.6 (–10.4%) | 148 (–34.3%) | 4240 (–55.4%) | 377 (–39.2%) | 0.217 (–29.3%) | 291 (–50.2%) | 26 (–31.6%) |
| Risk 3% (SA6) | 22.4 (–13.5%) | 13.9 (–14.7%) | 146.4 (–35.0%) | 4047 (–57.5%) | 357 (–42.4%) | 0.210 (–31.6%) | 292 (–50.0%) | 26 (–31.6%) |
| Risk 3% (SA8) | 23.6 (–8.9%) | 15.0 (–8.0%) | 205.4 (–8.9%) | 3105 (–67.4%) | 254 (–59.0%) | 0.235 (–23.5%) | 208 (–64.4%) | 17 (–55.3%) |
| Men – The Netherlands | ||||||||
| Age 50 | 29.3 (REF) | 19.8 (REF) | 258.1 (REF) | 9114 (REF) | 652 (REF) | 0.27 (REF) | 461 (REF) | 33 (REF) |
| Age 60 | 27.3 (–6.8%) | 17.9 (–9.6%) | 201.8 (–21.8%) | 5443 (–40.3%) | 478 (–26.7%) | 0.209 (–22.6%) | 304 (–34.1%) | 27 (–18.2%) |
| Risk 3% (SA6) | 27.2 (–7.2%) | 18.0 (–9.1%) | 202.3 (–21.6%) | 5313 (–41.7%) | 467 (–28.4%) | 0.208 (–23.0%) | 295 (–36.0%) | 26 (–21.2%) |
| Risk 3% (SA8) | 27.4 (–6.5%) | 18.8 (–5.1%) | 248.9 (–3.6%) | 3810 (–58.2%) | 300 (–54.0%) | 0.215 (–20.4%) | 203 (–56.0%) | 16 (–51.5%) |
Outcomes of age-based screening from age 50 and 65 (women only) or 60 (men only), and risk-based screening with a threshold of 3% for each sensitivity analysis. The harms, burdens and benefits are reported per 1000 CRC-free 40-year-old individuals.
Base, base case analysis; COL, colonoscopy; CRC, colorectal cancer; FIT, faecal immunochemical test; REF, reference category; SA3, sensitivity analysis with increased prevalence of CRC family history; SA4, decreased prevalence of family history; SA5, PRESENT trial data; SA6, Dutch natural history of disease in MISCAN-Colon; SA7, perfect risk prediction in Switzerland; SA8, Dutch natural history of disease with perfect risk prediction.