Intended for healthcare professionals

Feature Data Briefing

Waiting lists: the return of a chronic condition?

BMJ 2023; 380 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.p20 (Published 11 January 2023) Cite this as: BMJ 2023;380:p20
  1. John Appleby, director of research and chief economist
  1. Nuffield Trust, London, UK
  1. john.appleby{at}nuffieldtrust.org.uk

Waiting lists are big news, but what’s really happening? John Appleby presents the most recent data in elective and emergency care—and the effect on patients

Elective treatment waiting lists in the NHS in England have reached a record high of 7.1 million people, show the latest official data from NHS England, for September 2022 (fig 1).1 This continues a trend—accelerated by the covid-19 pandemic but evident for years 2—that has seen lists more than triple in size since 2009, when the number was 2.3 million.1

Fig 1

No of patients on elective care waiting list (NHS in England)1

The length of the queue to get treatment would be much less of a concern if it moved quickly. The problem is that it doesn’t. The target is for no more than 8% of patients waiting for a bed in hospital to wait more than 18 weeks from a GP’s referral to treatment; last October just under 40% were still waiting longer than this (fig 2). In February 2020 just 1613 people were still waiting after more than a year; now around 411 000 are.1 From April 2021 worsening waiting times have prompted official statistics to start recording waits of over 18 months and over two years.

Fig 2

Percentage of patients waiting longer than 18 weeks from GP referral to hospital treatment (NHS in England)1

It’s not just elective care that’s been badly hit. In October last year 31% of patients in accident and emergency departments waited longer than four hours before being treated, discharged, or admitted to hospital, against a target of 5%. And 28% of patients waiting for a diagnostic appointment waited longer than six weeks, against a target of 1% …

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