Intended for healthcare professionals

  1. Research
  2. The effect of rising...
  3. The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression
CCBYNC Open access
Research

The effect of rising food prices on food consumption: systematic review with meta-regression

BMJ 2013; 346 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.f3703 (Published 17 June 2013) Cite this as: BMJ 2013;346:f3703
  1. Rosemary Green, research fellow12,
  2. Laura Cornelsen, research fellow23,
  3. Alan D Dangour, senior lecturer12,
  4. Rachel Turner, honorary research fellow1,
  5. Bhavani Shankar, professor of international agriculture, food and health24,
  6. Mario Mazzocchi, associate professor5,
  7. Richard D Smith, professor of health system economics2, dean3
  1. 1Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
  2. 2Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health, London, UK
  3. 3Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
  4. 4Centre for Development, Environment and Policy, School of Oriental and African Studies, London, UK
  5. 5Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
  1. Correspondence to: R Green Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK rosemary.green{at}lshtm.ac.uk
  • Accepted 3 June 2013

Abstract

Objective To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels.

Design Systematic review with meta-regression.

Data sources Online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature (ISI Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed, Medline, AgEcon, Agricola, Google, Google Scholar, IdeasREPEC, Eldis, USAID, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute), hand searched reference lists, and contact with authors.

Study selection We included cross sectional, cohort, experimental, and quasi-experimental studies with English abstracts. Eligible studies used nationally representative data from 1990 onwards derived from national aggregate data sources, household surveys, or supermarket and home scanners.

Data analysis The primary outcome extracted from relevant papers was the quantification of the demand for foods in response to changes in food price (own price food elasticities). Descriptive and study design variables were extracted for use as covariates in analysis. We conducted meta-regressions to assess the effect of income levels between and within countries on the strength of the relation between food price and demand, and predicted price elasticities adjusted for differences across studies.

Results 136 studies reporting 3495 own price food elasticities from 162 different countries were identified. Our models predict that increases in the price of all foods result in greater reductions in food consumption in poor countries: in low and high income countries, respectively, a 1% increase in the price of cereals results in reductions in consumption of 0.61% (95% confidence interval 0.56% to 0.66%) and 0.43% (0.36% to 0.48%), and a 1% increase in the price of meat results in reductions in consumption of 0.78% (0.73% to 0.83%) and 0.60% (0.54% to 0.66%). Within all countries, our models predict that poorer households will be the most adversely affected by increases in food prices.

Conclusions Changes in global food prices will have a greater effect on food consumption in lower income countries and in poorer households within countries. This has important implications for national responses to increases in food prices and for the definition of policies designed to reduce the global burden of undernutrition.

Footnotes

  • Contributors: RG designed the study protocol, collected and entered the data, conducted the meta-regression analysis, and drafted and revised the paper. She is guarantor. LC revised the study protocol, collected and entered the data, and revised the draft paper. AD and RS initiated the project, assisted with study design, revised the study protocol, and revised the draft paper. RT entered the data and checked the data, and revised the draft paper. BS and MM assisted with study design and revised the draft paper. The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication.

  • Funding: This study was partly supported by the Leverhulme Centre for Integrative Research on Agriculture and Health. The funder had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report.

  • Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure.pdf (available on request from the corresponding author) and declare: no support from any organization for the submitted work; no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.

  • Ethical approval: Not required.

  • Data sharing: Statistical code and datasets are available from the corresponding author at rosemary.green{at}lshtm.ac.uk.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 3.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/.

View Full Text
Back to top