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Abstract
Background Plans to phase out fossil fuel-powered internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and to replace these with electric and hybrid-electric (E-HE) vehicles represent a historic step to reduce air pollution and address the climate emergency. However, there are concerns that E-HE cars are more hazardous to pedestrians, due to being quieter. We investigated and compared injury risks to pedestrians from E-HE and ICE cars in urban and rural environments.
Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study of pedestrians injured by cars or taxis in Great Britain. We estimated casualty rates per 100 million miles of travel by E-HE and ICE vehicles. Numerators (pedestrians) were extracted from STATS19 datasets. Denominators (car travel) were estimated by multiplying average annual mileage (using National Travel Survey datasets) by numbers of vehicles. We used Poisson regression to investigate modifying effects of environments where collisions occurred.
Results During 2013–2017, casualty rates per 100 million miles were 5.16 (95% CI 4.92 to 5.42) for E-HE vehicles and 2.40 (95%CI 2.38 to 2.41) for ICE vehicles, indicating that collisions were twice as likely (RR 2.15; 95% CI 2.05 to 2.26) with E-HE vehicles. Poisson regression found no evidence that E-HE vehicles were more dangerous in rural environments (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.74 to 1.11); but strong evidence that E-HE vehicles were three times more dangerous than ICE vehicles in urban environments (RR 2.97; 95% CI 2.41 to 3.7). Sensitivity analyses of missing data support main findings.
Conclusion E-HE cars pose greater risk to pedestrians than ICE cars in urban environments. This risk must be mitigated as governments phase out petrol and diesel cars.
- WOUNDS AND INJURIES
- CLIMATE CHANGE
- ACCIDENTS
Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open-access repository. Numerator data (numbers of pedestrians injured in collisions) are publicly available from the Road Safety Data (STATS19) datasets (https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/cb7ae6f0-4be6-4935-9277-47e5ce24a11f/road-safety-data). Denominator data (100 million miles of car travel per year) may be estimated by multiplying average annual mileage by numbers of vehicle registrations (publicly available from Department for Transport, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh02-licensed-cars). Average annual mileage for E-HE and ICE vehicles may be estimated separately for urban and rural environments using data that may obtained under special licence from the National Travel Survey datasets (http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-Series-2000037).
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Data availability statement
Data are available in a public, open-access repository. Numerator data (numbers of pedestrians injured in collisions) are publicly available from the Road Safety Data (STATS19) datasets (https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/cb7ae6f0-4be6-4935-9277-47e5ce24a11f/road-safety-data). Denominator data (100 million miles of car travel per year) may be estimated by multiplying average annual mileage by numbers of vehicle registrations (publicly available from Department for Transport, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh02-licensed-cars). Average annual mileage for E-HE and ICE vehicles may be estimated separately for urban and rural environments using data that may obtained under special licence from the National Travel Survey datasets (http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-Series-2000037).
Footnotes
Contributors CH and PJE developed the idea for this study and supervised SM in performing the literature search, downloading, managing and analysing the data. SM wrote the first draft of the manuscript, which was the dissertation for her MSc in Public Health. PJE prepared the first draft of the manuscript for the journal. All authors assisted in editing and refining the manuscript. The corresponding author attests that all listed authors meet authorship criteria and that no others meeting the criteria have been omitted. PJE (guarantor) accepts full responsibility for the work and the conduct of the study, had access to the data and controlled the decision to publish.
Funding This study was conducted in part fulfilment of the Masters degree in Public Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. The second author was self-funded for her studies for this degree.
Competing interests None declared.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.