This study investigated four widely-used early literacy skills indicators in reflecting growth toward first-grade text reading skills. Examining the progress of 101 students across kindergarten and first grade, Letter Naming Fluency (LNF) and Nonsense Word Fluency (NWF) were more accurate than Initial Sounds Fluency and Phoneme Segmentation Fluency in discriminating between students grouped according to successful or unsuccessful first-grade reading outcomes. LNF and NWF slope also discriminated between groups, but graphed observed scores suggested potential problems in identifying students with persistently low achievement. Results suggest the need for continued refinement of early literacy skills measures for instructional decision-making. (Contains 1 note, 2 tables, and 7 figures.)