Program evaluation uses hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to evaluate 99 ethnically diverse second-graders' growth in oral reading fluency using curriculum-based measurement (CBM). Results reveal that first-grade reading performance significantly predicted initial second-grade reading performance. Argues that the use of HLM with normative CBM reading probes provides additional information not available with other statistical techniques. (Contains 40 references and 3 tables.) (GCP)