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ERIC Number: EJ1430262
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2024-Jul
Pages: 16
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1759-2879
EISSN: EISSN-1759-2887
Combining Randomized and Non-Randomized Data to Predict Heterogeneous Effects of Competing Treatments
Konstantina Chalkou; Tasnim Hamza; Pascal Benkert; Jens Kuhle; Chiara Zecca; Gabrielle Simoneau; Fabio Pellegrini; Andrea Manca; Matthias Egger; Georgia Salanti
Research Synthesis Methods, v15 n4 p641-656 2024
Some patients benefit from a treatment while others may do so less or do not benefit at all. We have previously developed a two-stage network meta-regression prediction model that synthesized randomized trials and evaluates how treatment effects vary across patient characteristics. In this article, we extended this model to combine different sources of types in different formats: aggregate data (AD) and individual participant data (IPD) from randomized and non-randomized evidence. In the first stage, a prognostic model is developed to predict the baseline risk of the outcome using a large cohort study. In the second stage, we recalibrated this prognostic model to improve our predictions for patients enrolled in randomized trials. In the third stage, we used the baseline risk as effect modifier in a network meta-regression model combining AD, IPD randomized clinical trial to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. We illustrated the approach in the re-analysis of a network of studies comparing three drugs for relapsing--remitting multiple sclerosis. Several patient characteristics influence the baseline risk of relapse, which in turn modifies the effect of the drugs. The proposed model makes personalized predictions for health outcomes under several treatment options and encompasses all relevant randomized and non-randomized evidence.
Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2191/en-us
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A