As the public health framework has been implemented in schools through multi-tiered systems of support, as in Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS), a prominent interpretation has been that 80% of students will benefit from universal or Tier 1 schoolwide behavior support, around 15% will require added selective or Tier 2 targeted support, and 5% will require the more intensive selective or Tier 3 intervention. The PBIS framework also emphasizes the use of tiered logic, with strengthened efforts at the universal and selective levels when student behavioral or mental health needs exceed expected levels. The prediction that 5% of students will require indicated support was based mostly on students at risk for discipline encounters (i.e., office discipline referral data) and, more recently, systematic screening data, but this percentage remains an interpretation of the public health framework. Further, epidemiologic data over the past decade show that rates of childhood mental health disorders have risen and are even higher now as schools struggle to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic - much higher than 15% and 5% for selective and indicated levels. Thus, we believe it is time to revisit projections of the number of students in need of Tier 2 and Tier 3 support. In this position paper, we review the evidence for escalating youth mental health needs and discuss the implications for the tiered prevention framework in schools. We describe strategies to expand the availability of preventive intervention supports beyond Tier 1 efforts and conclude with recommendations for practice, policy, and research in this peri-COVID recovery era.