Young children encounter uncertainty and challenges on a daily basis; through their intuitions, experiences and experimentation they construct knowledge, skills and dispositions towards probabilistic concepts. The aim of this exploratory ethnographic study is to identify how young children engage with probabilistic thinking and reasoning while playing outdoors. Twelve 3--4year-old children and two practitioners were observed during free and structured activities outdoors. Critical events, that reflect contexts of probability, chance and uncertainty, were identified for further analysis based on participants' linguistic interactions. Children's probabilistic thinking was mainly expressed in three instances: while solving problems, in creative play, and while considering risk and safety issues. These authentic understandings can become the basis for more instructional pedagogical sequences on probability in early years.