Blue-collar employment growth increases schooling opportunities by raising incomes, but also reduces incentives for some students to advance beyond compulsory education. These contradictory influences may help to explain relatively slow and uneven growth of progression to upper-secondary schooling in Vietnam, which has experienced a foreign investment boom in mainly low-skill manufacturing industries. We use data on participation rates and scores in an upper-secondary school entrance exam to analyze variation due to demand-side and supply-side factors. The data come from less advanced provinces and so illuminate the challenges of deepening educational development at the extensive margin, especially among ethnic minority populations.