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ERIC Number: EJ1347936
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2022-Sep
Pages: 13
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1759-2879
EISSN: EISSN-1759-2887
Synthesizing Evidence from the Earliest Studies to Support Decision-Making: To What Extent Could the Evidence Be Reliable?
Yu, Tianqi; Lin, Lifeng; Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Xu, Chang
Research Synthesis Methods, v13 n5 p632-644 Sep 2022
In evidence-based practice, new topics generally only have a few studies available for synthesis. As a result, the evidence of such meta-analyses raised substantial concerns. We investigated the robustness of the evidence from these earliest studies. Real-world data from the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were collected. We emulated meta-analyses with the earliest 1 to 10 studies through cumulative meta-analysis from eligible meta-analyses. The magnitude and the direction of meta-analyses with the earliest few studies were compared to the full meta-analyses. From the CDSR, we identified 20,227 meta-analyses of binary outcomes and 7683 meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. Under the tolerable difference of 20% on the magnitude of the effects, the convergence proportion ranged from 24.24% (earliest 1 study) to 77.45% (earliest 10 studies) for meta-analyses of few earliest studies with binary outcomes. For meta-analyses of continuous outcomes, the convergence proportion ranged from 13.86% to 56.52%. In terms of the direction of the effects, even when only three studies were available at the earliest stage, the majority had the same direction as full meta-analyses; Only 19% for binary outcomes and 12% for continuous outcomes changed the direction as further evidence accumulated. Synthesizing evidence from the earliest studies is feasible to support urgent decision-making, and in most cases, the decisions would be reasonable. Considering the potential uncertainties, it is essential to evaluate the confidence of the evidence of these meta-analyses and update the evidence when necessary.
Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2191/en-us
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Information Analyses
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) (DHHS/NIH); National Library of Medicine (DHHS/NIH)
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: R03MH128727; R01LM012982