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ERIC Number: EJ1306095
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2021-Aug
Pages: 17
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1382-4996
EISSN: N/A
Natural Frequency Trees Improve Diagnostic Efficiency in Bayesian Reasoning
Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Schmidmaier, Ralf; Braun, Leah T.
Advances in Health Sciences Education, v26 n3 p847-863 Aug 2021
When physicians are asked to determine the positive predictive value from the a priori probability of a disease and the sensitivity and false positive rate of a medical test (Bayesian reasoning), it often comes to misjudgments with serious consequences. In daily clinical practice, however, it is not only important that doctors receive a tool with which they can "correctly" judge--the "speed" of these judgments is also a crucial factor. In this study, we analyzed accuracy and efficiency in medical Bayesian inferences. In an empirical study we varied information format (probabilities vs. natural frequencies) and visualization (text only vs. tree only) for four contexts. 111 medical students participated in this study by working on four Bayesian tasks with common medical problems. The correctness of their answers was coded and the time spent on task was recorded. The median time for a correct Bayesian inference is fastest in the version with a frequency tree (2:55 min) compared to the version with a probability tree (5:47 min) or to the text only versions based on natural frequencies (4:13 min) or probabilities (9:59 min). The score "diagnostic efficiency" (calculated by: median time divided by percentage of correct inferences) is best in the version with a frequency tree (4:53 min). Frequency trees allow more accurate "and" faster judgments. Improving correctness and efficiency in Bayesian tasks might help to decrease overdiagnosis in daily clinical practice, which on the one hand cause cost and on the other hand might endanger patients' safety.
Springer. Available from: Springer Nature. One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, NY 10004. Tel: 800-777-4643; Tel: 212-460-1500; Fax: 212-460-1700; e-mail: customerservice@springernature.com; Web site: https://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2123/
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A