ERIC Number: EJ1275575
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2020
Pages: 12
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0888-4080
EISSN: N/A
The Predictive Validity of Belief in Future Occurrence
D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Garcia Jimenez, Claudia
Applied Cognitive Psychology, v34 n6 p1265-1276 Nov-Dec 2020
Prospection is associated, in varying degrees, with a sense that imagined events will (or will not) happen in the future--referred to as "belief in future occurrence." The present research investigated to what extent this belief is justified and predicts the actual occurrence of events in the future. In two studies, participants rated their belief in the future occurrence of events imagined to happen in the coming month (Study 1) or week (Study 2), and the actual occurrence of events was then assessed. Results showed that the odds of event occurrence were about 2 times higher with an increase of 1 unit on the belief scale. Belief was particularly pronounced for temporally close events and was largely determined by the congruence of events with autobiographical knowledge. These results suggest that belief in future occurrence has some truth value and may inform decisions and actions.
Descriptors: Predictive Validity, Beliefs, Futures (of Society), Probability, Time, Congruence (Psychology)
Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2191/en-us
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Data File: URL: http://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2188/10.17605/OSF.IO/SHFYZ