ERIC Number: EJ1260536
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2020-Aug
Pages: 34
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0049-1241
EISSN: N/A
Improving and Validating Survey Estimates of Religious Demography Using Bayesian Multilevel Models and Poststratification
Claassen, Christopher; Traunmüller, Richard
Sociological Methods & Research, v49 n3 p603-636 Aug 2020
Religious group size, demographic composition, and the dynamics thereof are of interest in many areas of social science including migration, social cohesion, parties and voting, and violent conflict. Existing estimates however are of varying and perhaps poor quality because many countries do not collect official data on religious identity. We propose a method for accurately measuring religious group demographics using existing survey data: Bayesian multilevel regression models with poststratification. We illustrate this method by estimating the demography of Muslims, Hindus, and Jews in Great Britain over a 20-year period and validate it by comparing our estimates to UK census data on religious demography. Our estimates are very accurate, differing from true population proportions by as little as 0.29 (Muslim) to 0.04 (Jewish) percentage points. These findings have implications for the measurement of religious demography as well as small group attributes more generally.
Descriptors: Religious Cultural Groups, Muslims, Jews, Census Figures, Foreign Countries, Group Dynamics, Migration, Social Integration, Bayesian Statistics, Accuracy, Self Concept, Demography, Comparative Analysis, Measurement, Voting, Violence, Conflict, National Surveys, Religious Factors, Public Opinion, Cultural Background, Political Attitudes
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: United Kingdom
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A