This article explores the effect university widening participation activities have had in improving access to university of students from rural government-run schools in New South Wales, Australia. An effective effort to evaluate the success of widening participation programs in rural Australia, specifically New South Wales, has not been achieved to date. This article addresses this issue in three distinct ways. First, previous efforts to evaluate widening participation effectiveness are explored and their successes and failings are described. Second, a method to rigorously evaluate university-run outreach programs in Australia's unique socio-cultural context is constructed and explained. Third, this method is employed using a sample of Australian rural schools to evaluate outreach effectiveness. A mixed-method design combining multilevel growth models and in-depth interviews of careers advisors revealed teacher support of university outreach presence in schools did not necessarily translate to an opinion of outreach effectivity in raising university access levels. This was supported by quantitative analyses showing widening participation efforts in rural New South Wales have had little to no effect on the progression of rural students to university between 2010 and 2016.