Small mid-tier private schools tend to have modest endowments, and after decades of tuition hikes comparable to those of their elite peers, they are now at high risk of pricing themselves out of the market. The fiscal crisis of small private colleges will play out differently across the nation. States vary in their demographic projections and the degree to which their higher education systems rely on private schools. Informed observers agree that more closures are on the horizon, though they debate how truly disruptive the shakeout will be. A common thread among these struggling colleges is that they are small and less selective, admitting more than half of all applicants. Less-selective colleges generally command fewer financial resources than their more-selective peers. Another threat to small private schools lies in the practice of tuition discounting, providing most students with an institutional grant to partially offset the cost of their education. Also exerting pressure on private colleges is increased competition from public institutions. The emerging free-tuition movement could further strengthen the hand of public institutions at the expense of the private sector.