This study describes primary school students' knowledge about rainfall, clouds and rainbow formation together with teachers' predictions about students' performance. In our study, primary school students' (N = 177) knowledge about rainfall and rainbow formation was examined using structured interviews with open-ended questions. Primary school teachers' (N = 110) awareness of students' understanding was measured with questionnaires and the results will be discussed in relation to teaching experience and the use of different teaching practices. Our results show that students in every grade hold a wide-ranging set of misconceptions that reflect different combinations of their own understanding and learnt scientific knowledge. Teachers tended to overestimate students' performance and described second-grade students' knowledge more accurately than fourth- and sixth-grade students' knowledge. Teachers with less teaching experience were found to less overestimate and more underestimate sixth-grade students' knowledge than teachers with more teaching experience.