The Australian Government decision in response to the Bradley review to introduce a demand-driven funding model for undergraduate university places from 2012 was met with mixed reaction across the higher education sector. The removal of caps without subsequent fee deregulation is considered by some to be unsustainable. Opinions suggest that deregulation will favour popular institutions and courses at the expense of regional campuses, niche courses and some that are critical in meeting skills shortages. It is also believed by some that quality could be compromised. Despite the differing opinions, it is generally agreed that deregulation of the undergraduate market will increase the level of competition within the sector and with this competition there may be increased risk, for some institutions more so than others. This article explains how historical Victorian state tertiary admission data has been used to develop a model to assess the likely risk to selected courses within the Faculty of Science and Technology at Deakin University from 2012. The model uses applicants' preference combinations and Australian Tertiary Admissions Rank (ATAR) score rankings to predict the likely impact to the Clearly-IN ATAR (cut off score) for a given faculty course and to identify other Victorian competitor courses. Sensitivity analysis is applied assuming different intakes and varying levels of competition within the sector, thereby providing a range of possible outcomes. The article explores how the outputs from the model have been used by the faculty in preparation for deregulation of the undergraduate market in 2012 by helping to identify, assess and plan for the changes and the anticipated risk associated with these. [This paper was first presented at the Annual Conference of the Australasian Association for Institutional Research, "Let the sunshine in," Gold Coast, 9-11 November 2011.]