Working from the notion that the goal of middle school is to prepare students to successfully transition to high school, Baltimore Education Research Consortium (BERC) researchers investigated a range of outcomes consistent with this aim, such as performance in ninth grade, promotion to tenth grade, and course grades or test scores in middle school. In 2023, BERC recommended on-time promotion to tenth grade without course failures in ninth grade as the outcome for a middle grades early warning indicator (EWI) system. BERC recommended this outcome for several reasons. First, it was strongly predictive of on-time high school graduation. About 90% of students promoted to tenth without any failures graduated high school within four years. Second, there was relative balance in attainment of the outcome since most students in the district attained promotion to tenth grade without course failures and those students were distributed across schools in the district. While other outcomes were predictive of graduation, they had the drawback that students who achieved those outcomes were clustered in a small number of schools. And finally, the outcome was easy to understand and could be implemented with readily available administrative data. This report overviews trends in ninth grade success and graduation for first-time high school students in Baltimore City Public Schools. The focus on ninth grade derives from the abundance of research which indicates that the ninth grade year relates highly to successful high school graduation