Students who perform well at school academically are more likely to complete Year 12 and experience smoother transitions from education to employment. However, disentangling the effects of prior academic achievement on later performance from other confounding factors, such as socioeconomic status, has proved difficult. This study uses data from the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY), in conjunction with data from the National Assessment Program -- Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) and MySchool, to consider the contextual factors that affect a student's academic trajectory. Using measures of students' academic achievement, demographic factors, information about the school they attended and subsequent outcomes, the study explores the association between students' academic performance at school and their schooling outcomes, as evidenced by their Australian Tertiary Admissions Rank (ATAR). It investigates whether Year 9 NAPLAN scores can be used to predict students' likelihood of obtaining an ATAR upon completing Year 12, and the likelihood of obtaining a high ATAR, controlling for several demographic characteristics.