Teacher professional development is complex, and despite evidence from randomised controlled trials about key factors influencing this process, there is little research about how abilities prior to initial teacher training (ITT) influence early classroom practice. In England, many schools face teacher recruitment and retention challenges and finding ways to select candidates likely to find the challenges of teaching more aligned to their existing skills could have an important impact. The authors report the final analysis in a four-year study looking at the ability of the Future Teaching Scholars programme assessment centre to predict later practice. Building on previous reports, they present final conclusions about the approach's predictive validity and the standards of teaching achieved by participants at the end of their first term of teaching and conclude with lessons for policymakers.