The purpose of this quantitative correlational-predictive study was to determine if and to what extent students' Cognitive Ability, first-term GPA, and ethnicity predict student graduation status from a CTE college in Texas. Student retention rates continue to be a cause for great concern for higher learning, even more so for CTE institutions. Kember's model of student progress and the CHC theory guide and support this study. The population consisted of 2,322 CTE, allied health care students enrolled between the years of 2014-2018. The research questions focused on determining if Cognitive Ability, first-term GPA, and ethnicity predicted likelihood of CTE students graduating. To determine predictive capacity of the variables, a binomial logistic regression was applied to the retrospective data. The overall model was significant, X[superscript 2](5) = 637.644, p < 0.001. The results concluded that first-term GPA was significant (p = 0.001) in predicting the odds of whether a student graduates or not from their program of study. The odds of graduating are 38 times greater for each unit increased in first-term GPA. Cognitive Ability and ethnicity did not indicate a statistically significant predictability. The findings in this study offer practical implications on how higher education personnel can earlier identify at risk students. This study's practical contribution is to guide efforts to identify at risk students earlier during their academic journey and offer the support needed to persist and complete. [The dissertation citations contained here are published with the permission of ProQuest LLC. Further reproduction is prohibited without permission. Copies of dissertations may be obtained by Telephone (800) 1-800-521-0600. Web page: http://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2222/en-US/products/dissertations/individuals.shtml.]