ERIC Number: ED625397
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2022-Dec-12
Pages: 28
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Conjuring Power from a Theory of Change: The PWRD Method for Trials with Anticipated Variation in Effects
Timothy Lycurgus; Ben B. Hansen; Mark White
Grantee Submission
We present an aggregation scheme that increases power in randomized controlled trials and quasi-experiments when the intervention possesses a robust and well-articulated theory of change. Intervention studies using longitudinal data often include multiple observations on individuals, some of which may be more likely to manifest a treatment effect than others. An intervention's theory of change provides guidance as to which of those observations are best situated to exhibit that treatment effect. Our power-maximizing weighting for repeated-measurements with delayed-effects scheme, PWRD aggregation, converts the theory of change into a test statistic with improved asymptotic relative efficiency, delivering tests with greater statistical power. We illustrate this method on an IES-funded cluster randomized trial testing the efficacy of a reading intervention designed to assist early elementary students at risk of falling behind their peers. The salient theory of change holds program benefits to be delayed and non-uniform, experienced after a student's performance stalls. In this instance, the PWRD technique's effect on power is found to be comparable to that of doubling the number of clusters in the experiment. [This is the online version of an article published in "Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness."]
Related Records: EJ1402272
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Elementary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF); Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS)
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: DMS1646108; R305A120811; R305D210029