This report summarizes a strategy evaluation study of the Personnel Preparation Program (a division in the federal Office of Special Education Programs). The Personnel Preparation Program is intended to increase the numbers of qualified special educators through grants to institutions of higher education and state education agencies. This study specifically examined the federal strategy of targeting its resources to areas of critical demand for personnel, both current and projected. The study evaluated a model, HIRES, which uses the number of special education teachers hired to fill vacancies for the 1986-87 school year to determine current and projected national demand for special education teachers. Major conclusions include the following: HIRES as a single measure does not provide an accurate measure of demand; each of the HIRES component measures is associated with critical factors for estimating demand for special education personnel; of the HIRES measures, NO HIRES (number of budgeted unfilled positions) appears to be the best single measure of critical and current demand for special educators; and predicting demand for teachers beyond 3 years is of limited value. Seven major recommendations are presented. A set of separately bound appendices include the executive summary of a companion goal evaluation report, the data collection protocol, and a list of interviewees. (14 references) (DB)