This paper examines the economic push factors encouraging migration from the Caribbean Basin to the United States, as part of an assessment of the effectiveness of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. The basic assumption is that much of the migration is motivated by a desire to improve economic circumstances, and that the nonavailability of jobs in the native country is the key to the strength of this motivation. The growing imbalance between labor supply and labor demand in the Caribbean Basin is examined, utilizing alternative assumptions about how rapidly labor demand is likely to increase in the future. The implications of rising unemployment for migratory pressure are then discussed. The jobs that would have to be created, in addition to those expected to be generated by the continuation of present policies in order to achieve a variety of postulated job targets, as well as the projected costs of creating these additional jobs, are estimated. The major conclusion is that long-term solutions to the problem of rising joblessness in the Caribbean must focus on continued fertility reduction and on accelerated efforts towards economic development. Statistical data are included on 18 graphs, 3 tables, and a map. The appendix consists of 15 tables of labor projections and cost estimates. A list of 48 references and a 25-item bibliography of related titles on the impact of immigration in California are also included. (FMW)