Nationwide, public schools began to experience a youth population decline prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. After 14 years of successively smaller U.S. birth cohorts, elementary public schools now face gradually declining student counts. The complex convergence of shifting age demographics, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and ongoing educational inequities make it increasingly difficult to determine the primary driving force behind changes in public school populations. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) advises education and policy leaders to access real-time state and local data, to determine the best course of action for strategies and investments that focus on recovery. In this brief, WICHE analyzed state-level public school enrollment data from fall 2020 and fall 2021 and compared it to the pre-pandemic projections in WICHE's 10th edition "Knocking at the College Door" published in 2020. This report includes recommendations for educational leaders and policymakers as they continue to grapple with the impacts of COVID-19 on the K-12 pipeline.