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ERIC Number: ED637202
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2023
Pages: 115
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: 979-8-3801-3547-4
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
The Predictive Power of Key Financial Metrics: An Exploration of Financial Viability for Tuition-Dependent Institutions
Julee Gard
ProQuest LLC, Ed.D. Dissertation, University of Pennsylvania
University leaders do not have sufficient tools easily available to guide their decision-making related to institutional financial wellbeing. Currently, many financial indicators used by leaders of tuition-dependent higher education institutions are not focused on vital metrics such as liquidity and cash earnings. The twofold purpose of this research study is to define a framework that could be used by small, private, tuition-dependent universities to determine financial viability and to assess the extent to which the framework can be used to predict institutional survival. The framework identifies current financial data inputs used to calculate an annual Financial Viability Index (FVI). The FVI is categorized by a color code indicative of overall financial health ranging from blue (excellent), down to green (very good), yellow (good), orange (marginal), and red (poor). This quantitative research design focuses on analyzing trended FVIs for small tuition-dependent schools and, utilizing a Markov chain transition matrix, determining the predictive value in the index as it pertains to the financial health of the institution. Institutions starting in blue or green are more likely than not to deteriorate in FVI color in one year; institutions starting in yellow are twice as likely to deteriorate to orange or red rather that improving to green or blue; and schools starting in red are more likely than not to remain in red. A stepwise regression analysis identified certain components in the FVI that weigh more heavily than others in impacting a school going from one color to another. The predictive value of being in red and ultimately closing is strong as 79.5% of the 39 private institutions that have closed since 2017 were red immediately prior to closure. The use of the FVI tool and, more importantly, the understanding of the underlying component values and trends driving the index and associated color coding can provide small, tuition-dependent institutions with actionable information to help institutional leaders respond timely and effectively. This study has demonstrated that it is not too late for tuition-dependent institutions to respond effectively and proactively to improve their financial viability and ensure their long-term survival. [The dissertation citations contained here are published with the permission of ProQuest LLC. Further reproduction is prohibited without permission. Copies of dissertations may be obtained by Telephone (800) 1-800-521-0600. Web page: http://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2222/en-US/products/dissertations/individuals.shtml.]
ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway, P.O. Box 1346, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Tel: 800-521-0600; Web site: http://bibliotheek.ehb.be:2222/en-US/products/dissertations/individuals.shtml
Publication Type: Dissertations/Theses - Doctoral Dissertations
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A