ERIC Number: EJ1444019
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2024-Nov
Pages: 38
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0049-1241
EISSN: EISSN-1552-8294
Concrete Counterfactual Tests for Process Tracing: Defending an Interventionist Potential Outcomes Framework
Sociological Methods & Research, v53 n4 p1591-1628 2024
This article uses the interventionist theory of causation, a counterfactual theory taken from philosophy of science, to strengthen causal analysis in process tracing research. Causal claims from process tracing are re-expressed in terms of so-called hypothetical interventions, and concrete evidential tests are proposed which are shown to corroborate process tracing claims. In particular, three steps are prescribed for an interventionist investigation, and each step in turn is shown to make the causal analysis more robust, amongst others by disambiguating causal claims and clarifying or strengthening the existing methodological advice on counterfactual analysis. The article's claims are then illustrated using a concrete example, Haggard and Kaufman's analysis of the Argentinian transition to democracy. It is shown that interventionism could have strengthened the authors' conclusions. The article concludes with a short Bayesian analysis of its key methodological proposals.
Descriptors: Causal Models, Statistical Inference, Intervention, Investigations, Robustness (Statistics), Bayesian Statistics, Hypothesis Testing
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A