The report consists of three parts: "The Design of a Federal Employment Program to Counter Recession"; "The Design of a Federal Employment Program in a Strategy to Raise Low Earnings"; and "The Design of a Guaranteed Job Opportunity as a Part of Welfare Reform". In Part 1, an Anti-Recession Program (ARP) is proposed. ARP is an automatically…

The study derives a model of the unemployment insurance (UI) system and its relationship to the labor market, estimates it with data from the Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and evaluates its potential use to forecast UI benefit amounts, UI insured unemployment, and UI exhaustions. It further uses the model to analyze policy issues…